Aston Villa vs Newcastle United

[Rayvin 4964]

So perhaps we can cross reference against a possession graph? Or is that a bit over the top...

[Andrew 4226]

I see Okore, the defender who went off early against us, is out for 9 months having done his cruciate, bad injury that and very bad for villa

[tooner 243]

 

It's interesting, going off that, that Gouffran was on for 30 minutes (which is long enough to be notable), but spent most of his time playing through the centre, not out wide as Remy did.

but for his goal he was out wide where Remy was when Ben Arfa got the ball.

[Barney 0]

but for his goal he was out wide where Remy was when Ben Arfa got the ball.

Possibly coming in so much on his stronger foot into his natural position. Or maybe tucking in as the possession was on the other flank with HBA. He also went more central when Sammy came on left mid.

 

As others have said, our football has been much more encouraging, we've had no real identity for a long time. 4231 last season didn't work, and HBA isn't as effective starting so deep at right midfield. 433 was a good fit when we finished 5th and it looked good again on Saturday. You can see from Happy's link that the additions of Tiote and Ameobi changed our formation to cater to the situation too. (Something that Pardew did away to Wigan last year to good effect).

 

Sorry to hear about that new Villa players injury. That's bad luck.

[Happy Face 29]

Presumably if you had no possession you'd also have zero long balls? Also, what's the definition of a long ball? Not sure this tells us much tbh.

A long ball is defined the same way this august as it was last august. Whether that's 30, 40 or 50 yards is irrelevant when the scale is unchanged.

 

It tells us that those who hammered Pardew for his brand of hoof ball should probably credit him with taking away our reliance on it.

 

Think its daft to suggest our possession has possibly dropped off comparably with our number of long balls. Happy to be proved wrong like.

[Renton 17824]

A long ball is defined the same way this august as it was last august. Whether that's 30, 40 or 50 yards is irrelevant when the scale is unchanged.

 

It tells us that those who hammered Pardew for his brand of hoof ball should probably credit him with taking away our reliance on it.

 

Think its daft to suggest our possession has possibly dropped off comparably with our number of long balls. Happy to be proved wrong like.

I think a graph charting the proportion of passes that are 'long ball' (however that is defined) would be more informative. That is, relative rather than absolute figures.

[Happy Face 29]

Go for it

[ChezGiven 0]

I think a graph charting the proportion of passes that are 'long ball' (however that is defined) would be more informative. That is, relative rather than absolute figures.

No need just compare possession stats, if possession is roughly the same then HF's analysis holds.

 

How 'certain' are you of that 18th place now btw?

[Happy Face 29]

It would be the same thing. Opta provide everyone the stats and they determine possession just as a proportion of successful passes for each team. Not actual time in possession of the ball.

 

I had the long balls game by game after taking a look at them at the end of the season. I never saved the short passes or possession at that time though. Guess the BBC match reports will all have possession though.

[tooner 243]

Go for it

is the correct answer.

[Happy Face 29]

You only need do it for 10 games renton. The 5 up to and including Saturday (our lowest average long ball run) and the 5 games up to Southampton that saw our highest long ball average last year.

[Happy Face 29]

Average possession over the last 5 games has been 49%.

 

Average possession over the 5 games up to and including Southampton away (our highest 5 game average for long balls) was 48%.

 

So we're hitting less long balls with greater possession.

[ChezGiven 0]

Couldnt help yourself.

[Meenzer 14060]

Fewer long balls.

 

(I couldn't either. )

[Renton 17824]

How 'certain' are you of that 18th place now btw?

A lot less obviously. Mind, I've only seen the villa highlights and have to say we've looked poor in the full games I have seen (man city, west ham, and Fulham). I'm far from convinced at this early stage we've turned a corner as seems to be believed on the basis of the last game and HF's dubious stats. A few injuries and suspensions and we're back to square one, there's been no real progression IMO. Fortunately there are more than 3 other teams in a more perilous situation than us it seems, is looking really bad for the mackems, which is nice.

 

Anyway, Ashley's contempt for the fans and management of the club is the issue. I still enjoy matches and match days but as it's clear we're going nowhere that's it for me, simply can't justify the expense or practical difficulties of going to the match. Never felt more disillusioned with the club or football in general tbh. Mind, I'm a fickle bastard so a few more wins might see me changing my mind.

[Renton 17824]

Average possession over the last 5 games has been 49%.

 

Average possession over the 5 games up to and including Southampton away (our highest 5 game average for long balls) was 48%.

 

So we're hitting less long balls with greater possession.

Good, now where's the pie charts?

[Noelie 103]

I think one of the interesting parts of the Villa game was the number of times Colo ellegantly carried the ball forward and finished off with daisy-cutting pin-point passes. Never seen him do that many before and was used to seeing him send hoof-balls forward.

[RobinRobin 9241]

Good, now where's the pie charts?

CT ate it

[Happy Face 29]

Good, now where's the pie charts?

 

You wouldn't use a pie chart man. that would only work game to game. It would require a bar chart.

 

I'm fighting the urge to produce said chart.

[McFaul 35]

A lot less obviously. Mind, I've only seen the villa highlights and have to say we've looked poor in the full games I have seen (man city, west ham, and Fulham). I'm far from convinced at this early stage we've turned a corner as seems to be believed on the basis of the last game and HF's dubious stats. A few injuries and suspensions and we're back to square one, there's been no real progression IMO. Fortunately there are more than 3 other teams in a more perilous situation than us it seems, is looking really bad for the mackems, which is nice.

 

Anyway, Ashley's contempt for the fans and management of the club is the issue. I still enjoy matches and match days but as it's clear we're going nowhere that's it for me, simply can't justify the expense or practical difficulties of going to the match. Never felt more disillusioned with the club or football in general tbh. Mind, I'm a fickle bastard so a few more wins might see me changing my mind.

I'm every bit as pessimistic and miserable a cunt as you are, but I'm telling you now we were tremendous against Fulham a draw would've massively flattered them, and Villa was the second best performance this calendar year. There seems a purpose about us I wasn't expecting at all.

[David Kelly 1117]

We were pretty decent against Fulham in the second half, better again when Cabaye came on and looked good when Remy came on and I agree a draw would certainly have flattered them. But I think you're going way over the top saying we were tremendous Stevie.

 

That said I agree completely with your assesment of the Villa game. Asside from ten minutes or so after half time I thought we completely bossed the game looking pretty solid at the back, dominant in midfield and lively in attack. There was a confidence that I thought was lacking at least in the first two games and didn't expect to come back so quickly after a poor summer.

 

I'm not going overboard that we've completely turned a corner and we will clearly need some luck with injuries but I we were to get it we could get on a roll that could see a decent season.

 

Under Ashley that's pretty much the best we can hope for as he won't make the effort to push further than that.

[ChezGiven 0]

I'm every bit as pessimistic and miserable a cunt as you are, but I'm telling you now we were tremendous against Fulham a draw would've massively flattered them, and Villa was the second best performance this calendar year. There seems a purpose about us I wasn't expecting at all.

The lack of credit the manager gets is criminal. Psychologically who would blame any of our supporters for fearing the worst, the Cabaye situation, Kinnear, no new faces and then 4-0 away at Man City.

 

Its a credit to the manager because its his responsibility to focus the players from these distractions (they dont live in a bubble, they know whats going on) and get them playing with focus and purpose. I can see that in these circumstances, that last thing Pardew wanted was to lose the game against West Ham.

[Happy Face 29]

 

You wouldn't use a pie chart man. that would only work game to game. It would require a bar chart.

 

I'm fighting the urge to produce said chart.

 

 

 

Again, the bars represent the 5 games up to and including the one on the axis.

 

We've grown the number of short passes we average by 100 (283 to 383) in the time we reduced long passes by an average of 16 (67 down to 51).

[Renton 17824]

The lack of credit the manager gets is criminal. Psychologically who would blame any of our supporters for fearing the worst, the Cabaye situation, Kinnear, no new faces and then 4-0 away at Man City.

 

Its a credit to the manager because its his responsibility to focus the players from these distractions (they dont live in a bubble, they know whats going on) and get them playing with focus and purpose. I can see that in these circumstances, that last thing Pardew wanted was to lose the game against West Ham.

Maybe he isn't getting the full credit he deserves but he needs to make up for last season, with the good will of the previous season completely drained. The mackem match and the Liverpool match were massive humiliations. We've done well in the last 3 matches against mediocre opposition but the real tests are yet to come. Then he can get some credit.

[Happy Face 29]

The harshness of a football fan on a manager is something to behold.

 

Starting from after Pardew took us to fifth place, and most were satisfied to have him here, if not astounded by the quality of football.....

 

In the first 10 games of the following season, outside of the current top 6, nobody beat us. Only Chelsea and Man U could manage it.

 

In the last 15 games of that season, outside of the current top 6, only Sunderland Wigan and Swansea could beat us

 

It was the 13 games between that were a total catastrophe and which have seen all good will erased. We lost 10 of them. Fans are unforgiving of the fact we were playing games with Shane Ferguson, Sammy Ameobi, Danny Simpson and Mike Williamson. All 4 started against Swansea, as well as filling massive gaps regularly through that barren run.

 

We have not lost to any team outside the top 6 this season.

 

Still Pardew is on borrowed time with people who cannot see past that 13 game horror show.