North Korea

[Rayvin 4964]

Just now, Park Life said:

It was Bush who fucked up. There was a chance back in the day.

 

Fair enough, but where does that leave us now. We're not going to break down the NK regime in Kim's lifetime and possibly beyond, so we're looking at another 40-50 years of this. And they're going to become more and more able to project a nuclear threat as time goes on.

 

Eventually, someone is going to have to do something.

[Rayvin 4964]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

Parky, I know you avoid the MSM along with comrade Layvin, but have you missed the fact that the latest tensions are because sanctions have been upped?

 

This is NK, Kim is impervious to domestic overthrow. This us where the West's hopes and assumptions have been shown wrong. 

 

Hey!

[Dr Gloom 19885]

11 minutes ago, Park Life said:

NK nuclear programe came directly from China who also helped Pakistan and some say Iran.

 

this has been an interesting discussion up until now in an area i admit i'm not the most informed in, but i smell parky bullshit in this post. 

[Ken 119]

14 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I think you're overconcerned about Chinese threat potential tbh but I can't say for certain that you're wrong - I think a lot depends on how informed the US is keeping China in all of this - despite the bluster, there are significant backchannels in place between the two. China isn't nearly as hostile to the US as they claim to be for their domestic audience. But I could be wrong.

 

I don't think they're a significant military threat mind you... they've only just launched their first aircraft carrier and its a refurb. Decades away from matching the US and Europe.

Overconcerned?!?

 

China first attempted to say their activities in the South China Sea were to help in maritime disasters. It was a guise for a military buildup which the UN denounced and which China laughed at. This is the first step in the Chinese Communist Party's efforts at regional control and ambitions of eventual hegemony.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/28/whats-behind-beijings-drive-control-south-china-sea-hainan

 

The second step will be to tighten the noose on Taiwan and for it to come under the control of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) under the One China Policy. The third step will be to focus its efforts in the East and Japan and retake control of islands under Japanese administration, islands like Okinawa and the Senkakus. They base these claims on the fact that their history is thousands of years older so they must have been there first so they have right of way on them.

 

I am not 'overconcerned', just more aware of what is going on and China's (CCP) intentions.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 9, 2017 by Ken

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3232]

11 minutes ago, Renton said:

First point is ludicrous. What good would an underground fission weapon do? It's be like a fart under 10 duvet covers.

 

Second point, you're underestimating the mentality of the NK regime imo. There's no real evidence Kim is interested in self preservation. He's off his tits 

 

If an invading army is marching over the area at the time of detonation it could do quite a lot of damage, depending on the size of the nuke.

[Park Life 70]

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

Parky, I know you avoid the MSM along with comrade Layvin, but have you missed the fact that the latest tensions are because sanctions have been upped?

 

This is NK, Kim is impervious to domestic overthrow. This us where the West's hopes and assumptions have been shown wrong. 

Bush had the chance to change the game but he was obsessed with Iraq. The Pentagon at the time were also told not to mess by China. NK is a bulwark for China and causes confusion for the American war doctrine in the region. Bush ignored China's proliferation or was scared to tell them off back in the day.

[Renton 17876]

1 minute ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

 

If an invading army is marching over the area at the time of detonation it could do quite a lot of damage, depending on the size of the nuke.

Aye but the only invading army would be NK's own. No way are the US or SK going to send troops north. In any case, I am fairly sure US intelligence will know if there are underground weapons buried in that area. 

[Park Life 70]

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

this has been an interesting discussion up until now in an area i admit i'm not the most informed in, but i smell parky bullshit in this post. 

Couldn't find the article at first...China's game has been to destabilize American spheres of influence all over the place by arming and tech transfer to countries they knew were candidates for regime change inc Libya.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-navarro-and-greg-autry/how-north-korea-got-its-m_b_9676424.html

 

The China-Pakistan-NK axis of tech transfers.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/oct/19/pakistan.northkorea

Edited August 9, 2017 by Park Life

[Dr Gloom 19885]

china is N korea's biggest ally but i was under the impression their main aim is stability in the korean peninsula. how is arming them with nuclear technology going to achieve that? 

[Rayvin 4964]

1 minute ago, Ken said:

Overconcerned?!?

 

China first attempted to say their activities in the South China Sea were to help in maritime disasters. It was a guise for a military buildup which the UN denounced and which China laughed at. This is the first step in the Chinese Communist Party's efforts at regional control and ambitions of eventual hegemony.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/28/whats-behind-beijings-drive-control-south-china-sea-hainan

 

The second step will be to tighten the noose on Taiwan and for it to come under the control of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) under the One China Policy. The third step will be to focus its efforts in the East and Japan and retake control of islands under Japanese administration, islands like Okinawa and the Senkakus. They base these claims on the fact that their history is thousands of years older so they must have been there first so they have right of way on them.

 

I am not 'overconcerned', just more aware of what is going on and China's (CCP) intentions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you mean regional hegemony or global? I read your earlier comment as an assertion that the Chinese were on the cusp of world domination in place of the Americans, which I cannot support as a conclusion. They're miles away from the US ability to govern the world order, in particular because they lack the soft power initiatives that the US does that Parky mentioned earlier (but also because their military is vastly inferior). The biggest threat China poses to the US is actually cyber, IMO.

 

Regionally yes, they're trying to assert control over the regional area in place of the US - but if push came to shove they'd end up in a confrontation with every other state in the region due to their aggressive expansionist policies. I'm not sure China are quite ready for that conflict, even if their aspirations may seem to align with it.

 

I'm not uninformed on this myself by the way - while I agree with what you consider to be China's stated aims in a strategic sense, I disagree that they're currently in a position to realise any of that. They're about slow power creep, not direct confrontation.

[Park Life 70]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

china is N korea's biggest ally but i was under the impression their main aim is stability in the korean peninsula. how is arming them with nuclear technology going to achieve that? 

Because they will never be targeted. In the long game China wants America to have multiple threats in the arena.

[The Fish 9063]

If the Supreme Leader is removed, is there just another despot waiting in line to take over?

[Park Life 70]

The state of play is that America has been outflanked by Russia in Syria and totally out thunk by China in the Asia Pacific. With these new Russia sanctions it might be that half of Europe is going to step off the train as well.

Edited August 9, 2017 by Park Life

[Alex 30590]

1 minute ago, The Fish said:

If the Supreme Leader is removed, is there just another despot waiting in line to take over?

They go to Home Despot and buy another one. IFANGYU

[Park Life 70]

2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

If the Supreme Leader is removed, is there just another despot waiting in line to take over?

Just waiting for the call.

[Rayvin 4964]

Just now, The Fish said:

If the Supreme Leader is removed, is there just another despot waiting in line to take over?

 

Not sure. It would depend on how much the 'Kims are a gift from god' rhetoric is actually important for maintaining control. If (as I suspect) no North Koreans buy such nonsense, then it's likely the military will just seize control and run the place based on the same practical actions that have been used to ensure control up until now - in which case yes, a new supreme leader.

 

However, that leader would be one who would likely have to take a different approach to Kim vis-a-vis the US.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3232]

3 minutes ago, The Fish said:

If the Supreme Leader is removed, is there just another despot waiting in line to take over?

 

I think Kim Jong Un has been spending the last couple of years killing all of the potential heirs.

 

[Park Life 70]

Just now, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

 

I think Kim Jong Un has been spending the last couple of years killing all of the potential heirs.

 

And people he noticed weren't clapping properly.

[Rayvin 4964]

6 minutes ago, Park Life said:

The state of play is that America has been outflanked by Russia in Syria and totally out thunk by China in the Asia Pacific.

 

 

I'm really not sure this is the case you know, and I'm not fan of US Imperialism. The Chinese in particular have to be extremely careful about what they do; if they say something they can't then do, the CCP will be overthrown in a heartbeat. They almost had a national crisis on their hands after the Belgrade embassy bombing and that was two decades ago. The CCP won't want to square up against the US. If they lose, they lose China.

Edited August 9, 2017 by Rayvin

[Park Life 70]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

 

I'm really not sure this is the case you know, and I'm not fan of US Imperialism. The Chinese in particular have to be extremely careful about what they do; if they say something they can't then do, the CCP will be overthrown in a heartbeat. They almost had a national crisis on their hands after the Belgrade embassy bombing and that was two decades ago. The CCP won't want to square up against the US. If they lose, they lose China.

Maybe I went too far. But it's gonna be close baby!

[Rayvin 4964]

Just now, Park Life said:

Maybe I went too far. But it's gonna be close baby!

 

I think China will eventually surpass the US, but the half life for empires seems to shrink as each one goes by. I wondered to myself if the US of Eurasia might be the one that knocks China down, if Europe becomes more pro-Russian over time.

 

Equally, you could make a case that with China investing in Africa, it could be that we see the African continent take the reigns. Or South America (although they're rising at a similar time to China, so I think it's more likely they'll be enemies to the Chinese regime in the end).

[Ken 119]

24 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Do you mean regional hegemony or global? I read your earlier comment as an assertion that the Chinese were on the cusp of world domination in place of the Americans, which I cannot support as a conclusion. They're miles away from the US ability to govern the world order, in particular because they lack the soft power initiatives that the US does that Parky mentioned earlier (but also because their military is vastly inferior). The biggest threat China poses to the US is actually cyber, IMO.

 

Regionally yes, they're trying to assert control over the regional area in place of the US - but if push came to shove they'd end up in a confrontation with every other state in the region due to their aggressive expansionist policies. I'm not sure China are quite ready for that conflict, even if their aspirations may seem to align with it.

 

I'm not uninformed on this myself by the way - while I agree with what you consider to be China's stated aims in a strategic sense, I disagree that they're currently in a position to realise any of that. They're about slow power creep, not direct confrontation.

No, in the mid-term it is strictly regional. Firstly, the Chinese want America's influence in the Asia Pacific gone. Their aim long-term though, in decades to come, is to be the world's main power. They have a long way to go before they get there but it is there aim.

 

The nations that make up South-East Asia aren't capable enough to counter-act against China. They are powerless. The only countries capable of standing up to China are of course America and Japan. India have the potential and are currently in a border standoff with China but they are realistically so disorganised and inefficient in their attempts to modernise.

[Renton 17876]

20 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I think China will eventually surpass the US, but the half life for empires seems to shrink as each one goes by. I wondered to myself if the US of Eurasia might be the one that knocks China down, if Europe becomes more pro-Russian over time.

 

Equally, you could make a case that with China investing in Africa, it could be that we see the African continent take the reigns. Or South America (although they're rising at a similar time to China, so I think it's more likely they'll be enemies to the Chinese regime in the end).

Half life of an empire? Curious proposition, what would half an empire be? 

 

Think I know what you mean but surely Empire is dead in a conventional sense. I don't accept the USA compares to the Roman, Moorish, or British empires. Maybe the USSR was the last one. I can't see a chinese empire arising either. 

[Rayvin 4964]

11 minutes ago, Ken said:

No, in the mid-term it is strictly regional. Firstly, the Chinese want America's influence in the Asia Pacific gone. Their aim long-term though, in decades to come, is to be the world's main power. They have a long way to go before they get there but it is there aim.

 

The nations that make up South-East Asia aren't capable enough to counter-act against China. They are powerless. The only countries capable of standing up to China are of course America and Japan. India have the potential and are currently in a border standoff with China but they are realistically so disorganised and inefficient in their attempts to modernise.

 

Ok well I agree with all of that - I interviewed a number of Chinese people for one of my dissertations who would outright state that they felt China's position in the world should be as the global dominating force.

 

Whether they get there or not isn't necessarily inevitable though.

[Ken 119]

48 minutes ago, Park Life said:

Couldn't find the article at first...China's game has been to destabilize American spheres of influence all over the place by arming and tech transfer to countries they knew were candidates for regime change inc Libya.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-navarro-and-greg-autry/how-north-korea-got-its-m_b_9676424.html

 

The China-Pakistan-NK axis of tech transfers.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/oct/19/pakistan.northkorea

China and the USSR have aided in NK's missile technology.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/north-korean-mystery-where-did-its-rockets-missiles-come-21202

 

Pakistan traded uranium enrichment technology in return for missile technology.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_03/Pakistan