The Fish

Everton's games in hand are away to Watford and away to Crystal Palace. Everton have won once away from home all season, and that was under Benitez at the beginning of the season against Brighton. Burnley's game in hand is Villa. Burnley v Everton means either both teams drop a potential 3pts, or one of them gets nowt. their other games are, on paper, an opportunity to pick up points, however, Burnley aren't 19th because of magic. They've won 3 Premier League games. From where do you conjure the phantasm of a good Burnley? If they were performing well I'd maybe be able to make a case for it, but they've failed to scored in 6/9 last games and only Norwich have scored fewer across the season. You can't win if you don't score.

Predicted it? No, probably not, but shown the likelihood of it? Yeah I could. At the time, Man Utd weren't in great run of good performances, their previous three results were; a 1-0 win at home to Palace (xG 0.87 xGA 0.52), then a laboured and somewhat fortunate draw against Young Boys in the CL, then a laboured win over Norwich. So you've a team out of form (performance-wise), 7th in the league, away from home. If you go to whoscored.com, their score predictions for these games run like this; Man Utd 1-3 Loss Watford 2-2 draw Leeds 1-2 Loss Everton 2-2 draw Villa 2-2 draw West Ham 2-2 draw Brentford 1-0 win Brighton 2-1 win Southampton 1-1 draw So even their model said the most likely results would only see us lose twice. Which is some turn around for a team that, at the start of that run were sitting in 19th, with 1 win, and the worst defence in the league.

Next season. Then I can try and set something up using this; https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2122/E0.csv

You were literally having a pop and mentioned my wife's name. No idea why you're linking Wraith's Holly, but I guess to truly understand what in the fuck you're blethering on about I'd also have to be shitfaced on cheap wine.

Did it for 20/21, but haven't maintained my spreadsheet for 21/22, so it'd be too big of a task as it takes into account; Home and away strength of both sides, GF, and GA for both sides, xG and xGA etc. I'd have to punch all that in for the 29 games played out so far and I cba. It's not just a case of eyeballing the league table and stating Watford are bad, therefore they're a soft touch at the Amex (say). Watford are good on the road, Brighton aren't great at home. But weighted by the respective teams overall performance, you'd still say Brighton were favourites, but it's a lot closer than you might think for teams in 13th and 18th. So a draw is the most likely event. I want to include some stuff to account for league form, and what happens to form once there's nothing to play for, but I need to analyse each on-the-beach team over a large enough sample size to see if it makes a difference? Do they play with more freedom, or is pressure the thing that got them to safety in the first place?

He definitely could. People made out like a narrow, undeserved win against what is still a bottom half of the table Newcastle without many of the best players was some kind of turning point for their season. Crystal Palace have just shown everyone how to beat Everton. Their wide men had all the time and space they wanted and their central midfield is combative, but aimlessly so. They've got West Ham next, then Burnley. Two organised, combative sides who could easily undo the Everton defence. Then 5 games where it's hard to see them picking up a point, let alone the wins they'll need to really get themselves out of danger. Honestly? I think this could go down to the last day. Say we're 13th, mathematically safe. Would you rather Burnley win and we finish 14th, if it meant Everton went down regardless of their result at Arsenal?

I like it.

Yes they do, and yes they do. I'm a comparative moron and I can knock up a serviceable model to account for both of those things.

fwiw, I agree that there's a tiny chance of us going down, so tiny it's basically smaller than CT's button mushroom on a cold day. That said, your PpG forecast model doesn't account for the strength of opposition that each club faces. It reduces every game to a league average. There are some games that are all but unwinnable for the teams down there, (away to Chelsea, Liverpool or Man city e.g.). Also, Everton are more likely to beat Leeds at Goodison than they are Watford, due to their respective strength on the road. Also, Watford have actually only conceded 21 goals on the road, 1 fewer than Man Utd, yet have won 8 fewer points. How does your model handle that shit? huh? So, in your next draft, please weight the strengths of each team before forecasting. Ta

Yeah people are digging out Burn or ASM, it's reductive and fails to take into account there was an entire game played where numerous mistakes or bad decisions were made by the whole team. We didn't lose that game because Burn was turned in the 103rd minute, or ASM was shoved off the ball. It was because we didn't create sufficient good chances, or take the half chances that fell our way. That's partly a lack of quality, partly a failure to manage the game as well as we have done before. I remember Robert being singled out, or Ben Arfa. It's often those that have the talent to occasionally win the game on their own who are blamed when they don't do it to dig the team out of a hole. I mean, fair enough to blame a defender who has a mare, or a keeper who flaps, but saying ASM lost us the game because he was arguably fouled, or because he didn't pass after beating 2 or 3 is a joke. Even if he did pick out a player, who was in the box? Joelinton? Wood? Murphy? Hardly a list of predatory finishers, is it? Easier to find a scapegoat than work out the more complex issues that lead to a loss.

Should I get a Playstation or an Xbox lads? Guide me. Seems I can get an Xbox S for £250, or a Playstation5 for £450?

Well hot damn, WOOOO, I tell you whut, that is exhibit A in the case for denying visiting rights.

Leave her? I'm worried this is the ground work for an alibi

They might not have deserved to lose, but they definitely didn't deserve to win. We didn't either, mind you. Wood, Krafth and Willock were poor, imo. Wood wasn't getting the better of Keane often and when he did, the rest of the attacking unit were too far away from him to take advantage. But then Howe didn't instruct the team to play further up so that Almiron, Fraser, Willock could get onto some of Bruno's passes. Wonder if we'd have been better off with Wilock ahead of a double pivot in Longstaff and Bruno? Didn't really understand the like for like replacements either. Instead of JM<>EK, MA<>ASM and JM<>RF , why not remove Willock or Joelinton for Gayle? Or, when they went a man down, bring on ASM for Krafth and go 3 at the back? If our missing players had managed a 7/10 performance we'd have won that game, but when their inadequate replacements have a 7/10 game, we're fucked. Negativity aside, that was our 4th away game in 12 days. We were missing several of our most important players from the starting line-up. We were the better side, but just lacked a bit of luck/quality in front of goal. Plus, it was a fucking weird game.

What can you do? Sex sells.

Rumours that Begovic will start tonight for them. Which is hilarious, England's No1 has been taken out of the game because he loses his head whenever he faces us.

This idea that people giving their opinion on youtube, (or their own site once youtube kicks them off) are somehow less biased, and more informed than 'mainstream' media... it baffles me. This idea that layman will be more informed on the complexities of virology, epidemiology, foreign trade, domestic trade because they've smashed their trotters into google and got the answers they want from ULTRANEWSMAX, baffles me. Older members might be able to confirm, but it feels to me that it's become way more easy for gobshites to claim authority than it once was. Fuck me, I was a gobshite on loads of serious topics when I was a kid, just look back at some of the bollocks I put on here. I had no idea their was a lucrative career to be had from it.

Is Joelinton fit?

I hope the staff mutiny, go full Black Sails and roam the channel boarding other ferries and burying their duty-free loot on Sark.

Expected Beeeewwwwwws?

I think it's a group of people who believe having an opinion trumps having actual expertise/insight.

Always think that question gets a visceral response but if the respondents were forced to actually consider it they'd change their mind.

Yours has been the most dramatic turnaround. You were all but convinced we were down, would be facing a winding up order, and would have to ground share with Sunderland. Now, you're cock a hoop.

Alongside Matty Longstaff