relegation

[LeazesMag 0]

I genuinely haven't been worried about relegation at all, not so much a great belief in us but mainly down to there being some shocking teams in this league. I did however think we'd win yesterday and to be fair we really should have but for finishing. Come the end of the Brum game if we've lost to them and Liverpool then i would start to worry as depending on what other teams have done we'd be in the bottom 3 quite likely.

 

Our aim sadly has to be to emulate the mackems and that means beating the bottom teams at home. If we beat Fulham, Reading and the mackems themselves a home and pick up a point or 2 away from home we'll be fine. Lose any of those games and it won't look good at all!

 

But i don't think we'll go down and would put money on us to stay up if i was the gambling type.

 

we simply must beat Fulham at home now, to set us up for the Reading game to follow. If we won both of those, we would go into the game against the mackems looking much better than now. It would seem that 37 or 38 points will be enough, but these games are all 6 pointers now. Keegans approach is always likely to conjure up an away win and the best place to do this would be at Birmingham.

[The Fish 9103]

There's eight points between top and bottom half of the table. It's really all about the relegation fight this year as I don't think there's anyone in the bottom half who is truly "safe". Tottenham have shown they're inconsistency again and their run in isn't particularly easy either.

 

UEFA Cup

PSV

West Ham

UEFA Cup

PSV

Man City

Chelsea

Portsmouth

Newcastle

Blackburn

Middlesbrough

Wigan

Bolton

Reading

Liverpool

 

the italics are the games I can't see them getting anything from, those that are bold are games that could very easily go wrong for them given their propensity to throw things away spectacularly. I've left the UEFA cup in, because that can go one of four ways. Victory could spurn them on or exhaust their players, Loss could demoralise or focus their team for the league.

 

I use Tottenham as an example because they're the furthest from danger, but not truly out of the woods imo

[Papa Lazaru 0]

I genuinely haven't been worried about relegation at all, not so much a great belief in us but mainly down to there being some shocking teams in this league. I did however think we'd win yesterday and to be fair we really should have but for finishing. Come the end of the Brum game if we've lost to them and Liverpool then i would start to worry as depending on what other teams have done we'd be in the bottom 3 quite likely.

 

Our aim sadly has to be to emulate the mackems and that means beating the bottom teams at home. If we beat Fulham, Reading and the mackems themselves a home and pick up a point or 2 away from home we'll be fine. Lose any of those games and it won't look good at all!

 

But i don't think we'll go down and would put money on us to stay up if i was the gambling type.

 

we simply must beat Fulham at home now, to set us up for the Reading game to follow. If we won both of those, we would go into the game against the mackems looking much better than now. It would seem that 37 or 38 points will be enough, but these games are all 6 pointers now. Keegans approach is always likely to conjure up an away win and the best place to do this would be at Birmingham.

 

Totally agree, a win against Fulham and the confidence from that should be enough to go on and beat Reading IMO, and if you have 6 points from those 2 games things will be looking that little bit better!

 

Also agree that KK is capable of pulling an away win out of the hat sooner or later just because his teams are usually win or bust, lose a fair few away but win one suddenly and Brum could be that game hopefully.

 

But the Fulham game has really become the big one hasn't it!

[JawD 31]

Right, being the boring fucker that I am, Ive just knocked up an excel sheet of the remaining fixtures for the bottom clubs for boro down over. Using that, I reckon we will finish on 33 points. but below us I have Derby, Bolton 30, Fulham 25, Wigan 32, Reading 30. Meaning we would be in 15th at the end and Derby, Fulham get relegated plus Reading on GD. Get to the bookies now.

[JawD 31]

Oh, and I had our points coming from a win over Fulham and draws with Reading and the Mackems. Nowt else. So even with that 5 points I reckon we're safe. Be fucking bricking it though

[ewerk 26738]

Right, being the boring fucker that I am, Ive just knocked up an excel sheet of the remaining fixtures for the bottom clubs for boro down over. Using that, I reckon we will finish on 33 points. but below us I have Derby, Bolton 30, Fulham 25, Wigan 32, Reading 30. Meaning we would be in 15th at the end and Derby, Fulham get relegated plus Reading on GD. Get to the bookies now.

 

Just another day in the rock'n'roll life of JawD.

[The Fish 9103]

Right, being the boring fucker that I am, Ive just knocked up an excel sheet of the remaining fixtures for the bottom clubs for boro down over. Using that, I reckon we will finish on 33 points. but below us I have Derby, Bolton 30, Fulham 25, Wigan 32, Reading 30. Meaning we would be in 15th at the end and Derby, Fulham get relegated plus Reading on GD. Get to the bookies now.

why didn't you just use the BBC predictor thingy?

[JawD 31]

Right, being the boring fucker that I am, Ive just knocked up an excel sheet of the remaining fixtures for the bottom clubs for boro down over. Using that, I reckon we will finish on 33 points. but below us I have Derby, Bolton 30, Fulham 25, Wigan 32, Reading 30. Meaning we would be in 15th at the end and Derby, Fulham get relegated plus Reading on GD. Get to the bookies now.

why didn't you just use the BBC predictor thingy?

 

Mines better

 

I only enter the points, 3,1 or 0. Then if I add 0 to say the Brum game, it will automatically add a 3 to their newcastle game (using the IF formulae).

 

Told you I was bored.

[Happy Face 29]

But the Fulham game has really become the big one hasn't it!

 

First home/away double of the season.

 

[TheMoog 0]

1 Man Utd

2 Arsenal

3 Chelsea

4 Liverpool

5 Everton

6 Aston Villa

7 Man City

8 West Ham

9 Blackburn

10 Portsmouth

11 Tottenham

12 Birmingham

13 Middlesbrough

14 Newcastle

15 Wigan

16 Sunderland

17 Reading

18 Bolton

19 Fulham

20 Derby

 

That's my latest prediction for the league standings at the end of this season, I'm not worried.

[Dr Gloom 20033]

i think we could well be fucked. the birmingham, mackem and reading games are all relegation six pointers. win those 3 and pick up the odd point elsewhere and we should be ok. lose any of them and i reckon we're going down because we won't pick up many wins against any of thoe other teams we're playing in the run in on current form

[manc-mag 1]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

[Happy Face 29]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

 

 

Looking at where we've picked up points I don't see any reason not to expect points from the 3 home games in that lot....

 

 

We've not lost a game at home to anyone in the bottom half all season. So I'm confident of points there.

 

Birmingham away would be a good place to get a win to seal it though.

[Row Z 0]

We'll be fine. Derby and Fulham have gone, definately think we'll pick up at least 3 wins between now and the end of the season (Probably not at Anfield though) and there'll be someone worse than us.. at the end of the season.

 

Here are our remaining fixtures - i've highlighted the matches i think we have a chance of winning (and i've put a * next to the ones i think we'll win)

 

Sat 8-Mar

Liverpool (a)

 

Mon

17-Mar 8pm

Birmingham (a) *

 

Sat

22-Mar

Fulham (h) *

 

Sun 30-Mar

Tottenham (a)

 

Sat 5-Apr

Reading (h) *

 

Sat 12-Apr

Portsmouth (a)

 

Sat

19-Apr Mackems (h) *

 

Sat 26-Apr

West Ham (a)

 

Sat 3-May

Chelsea (h)

 

Sun 11-May

Everton (a)

 

Hopefully we will be safe before the last 2 games.

[Happy Face 29]

 

You wanna get sued?

[manc-mag 1]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

 

 

Looking at where we've picked up points I don't see any reason not to expect points from the 3 home games in that lot....

 

 

We've not lost a game at home to anyone in the bottom half all season. So I'm confident of points there.

 

Birmingham away would be a good place to get a win to seal it though.

 

Thing is I'd be happier fighting this relegation battle above the relegation zone rather than in it. Our next fixture is Liverpool and we'll lose that so we can assume that by the following game we're going to be nearer to the drop zone than further from it. Following that up I really don't expect us to get anything against Birmingham at all-the danger with all that is that by then we're in a cycle of form where we're becoming serious strangers from picking up any points at all. Fulham follows that and while they're utter dog-shit, I think people under estimate how much the lack of wins might have affected belief by then. The mackems is looking like the best bet for me even though it'll no doubt be the most gruelling of the lot and thats just because its a derby and hence a free-for-all. It could go either way of course, but I'd take games that could go either way at the moment, rather than fixtures where people seem utterly convinced we'll win (wrongly in my view) or those that we know we almost certainly can't win (eg Liverpool).

[Happy Face 29]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

 

 

Looking at where we've picked up points I don't see any reason not to expect points from the 3 home games in that lot....

 

 

We've not lost a game at home to anyone in the bottom half all season. So I'm confident of points there.

 

Birmingham away would be a good place to get a win to seal it though.

 

Thing is I'd be happier fighting this relegation battle above the relegation zone rather than in it. Our next fixture is Liverpool and we'll lose that so we can assume that by the following game we're going to be nearer to the drop zone than further from it. Following that up I really don't expect us to get anything against Birmingham at all-the danger with all that is that by then we're in a cycle of form where we're becoming serious strangers from picking up any points at all. Fulham follows that and while they're utter dog-shit, I think people under estimate how much the lack of wins might have affected belief by then. The mackems is looking like the best bet for me even though it'll no doubt be the most gruelling of the lot and thats just because its a derby and hence a free-for-all. It could go either way of course, but I'd take games that could go either way at the moment, rather than fixtures where people seem utterly convinced we'll win (wrongly in my view) or those that we know we almost certainly can't win (eg Liverpool).

 

Can't see us dropping much lower, even if we lose next weeks fixture. Those who can jump us mathematically have to play Man City, Everton and Arsenal themselves. I give us as much of a hope as I give them.

[Isegrim 8920]

I've had a look at the fixure lists of some other teams. Especially Bolton have pretty difficult games to come up. If we are not able to beat the likes of Fulham etc. at home we deserve to go down anyway.

 

I do have the strange feeling that we will get a decent result against Liverpool next week. With them having to play Inter a couple of days later and their indifferent Premierleague form this might be a good game to pick up confidence for the crunch games in the weeks afterwards.

[Bombadil 0]

I've had a look at the fixure lists of some other teams. Especially Bolton have pretty difficult games to come up. If we are not able to beat the likes of Fulham etc. at home we deserve to go down anyway.

 

I do have the strange feeling that we will get a decent result against Liverpool next week. With them having to play Inter a couple of days later and their indifferent Premierleague form this might be a good game to pick up confidence for the crunch games in the weeks afterwards.

 

They're playing West Ham on Wednesday as well.

[manc-mag 1]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

 

 

Looking at where we've picked up points I don't see any reason not to expect points from the 3 home games in that lot....

 

 

We've not lost a game at home to anyone in the bottom half all season. So I'm confident of points there.

 

Birmingham away would be a good place to get a win to seal it though.

 

Thing is I'd be happier fighting this relegation battle above the relegation zone rather than in it. Our next fixture is Liverpool and we'll lose that so we can assume that by the following game we're going to be nearer to the drop zone than further from it. Following that up I really don't expect us to get anything against Birmingham at all-the danger with all that is that by then we're in a cycle of form where we're becoming serious strangers from picking up any points at all. Fulham follows that and while they're utter dog-shit, I think people under estimate how much the lack of wins might have affected belief by then. The mackems is looking like the best bet for me even though it'll no doubt be the most gruelling of the lot and thats just because its a derby and hence a free-for-all. It could go either way of course, but I'd take games that could go either way at the moment, rather than fixtures where people seem utterly convinced we'll win (wrongly in my view) or those that we know we almost certainly can't win (eg Liverpool).

 

Can't see us dropping much lower, even if we lose next weeks fixture. Those who can jump us mathematically have to play Man City, Everton and Arsenal themselves. I give us as much of a hope as I give them.

 

Aye well I wouldnt disagree with that necessarily.

 

I've said previously I think it's a lottery now. I honestly don't look at any games where I actually expect on balance of probabilities that we will win though. It doesnt understate the case to say that failure to put the ball in the net is a massive drawback in football.

[Bombadil 0]

We're still talking about games like Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland as where we're going to pick up points. Obviously they're the fixtures that spring naturally to mind, but previously Blackburn were mentioned in that list and prior to that Middlesbrough. I personally think we're now relying on one team to do worse than us in the run in for 3rd bottom rather than us putting any results together because I don't see any particular individual game yielding points for us any more. That's not to say they won't -just I have absolutely no confidence that they will.

 

The best i'm now realistically hoping for is for us to avoid defeat against the likes of Fulham/Birmingham/Reading/Sunderland-as converselely we're the only team on their fixture list run-in that they will actually fancy beating (and I include Fulham in that). That for me has now become the crucial factor.

 

 

Looking at where we've picked up points I don't see any reason not to expect points from the 3 home games in that lot....

 

 

We've not lost a game at home to anyone in the bottom half all season. So I'm confident of points there.

 

Birmingham away would be a good place to get a win to seal it though.

 

Thing is I'd be happier fighting this relegation battle above the relegation zone rather than in it. Our next fixture is Liverpool and we'll lose that so we can assume that by the following game we're going to be nearer to the drop zone than further from it. Following that up I really don't expect us to get anything against Birmingham at all-the danger with all that is that by then we're in a cycle of form where we're becoming serious strangers from picking up any points at all. Fulham follows that and while they're utter dog-shit, I think people under estimate how much the lack of wins might have affected belief by then. The mackems is looking like the best bet for me even though it'll no doubt be the most gruelling of the lot and thats just because its a derby and hence a free-for-all. It could go either way of course, but I'd take games that could go either way at the moment, rather than fixtures where people seem utterly convinced we'll win (wrongly in my view) or those that we know we almost certainly can't win (eg Liverpool).

 

Can't see us dropping much lower, even if we lose next weeks fixture. Those who can jump us mathematically have to play Man City, Everton and Arsenal themselves. I give us as much of a hope as I give them.

 

Reading will beat Man City at home IMO. And if we lose against Birmingham after the Liverpool game, we could well be 17th or 18th. Two or three home wins will see us stay in the PL, but I think it could get worse before it gets better...

[David Kelly 1117]

Fulham haven't won an away game for something like 17 months and the makems haven't won an away game all season (and have only just managed to pull out of a twelve game losing streak against Derby) so I fully expect us to lose those games like we always seem to manage to do.

 

Seriously though I'm not confident about picking up points against anyone now (despite a pretty decent performance on Saturday) as the players are so short of confidence it's painfull.

 

The best thing I can think of is like someone else said I can see a few teams stopping up with quite a bit less than 40 points this season and I just hope we can at least do that.

 

Getting Barton out of the team and playing a striker who is some sort of goal threat alongside Owen will be out best bet of achieving it imo.

[Craig 6321]

Michael Wray's spreadsheet prediction thing has us relegated on goal difference. Hope it doesn't work out that way....

[Guest alex]

Our goal difference is a big concern like, given how tight it is likely to be in the battle not to be in the third relegation spot.

[The Fish 9103]

I do see goals in our side, as soon as the first one bobbles in I predict a few will follow. We're creating chances and while they're not crossing the line yet, I truly believe that scoring goals isn't our concern.