Europe --- In or Out

[Christmas Tree 3997]

[SpaceCadet 5]

6 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said:

 

You're right

 

There's plenty on Netflix

[Meenzer 14060]

You'll buy nowt with our money, scrounger.

[SpaceCadet 5]

3 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

You'll buy nowt with our money, scrounger.

 

Behave yourself.

[Monkeys Fist 38804]

11 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

You'll buy nowt with our money, scrounger.

[Dr Gloom 19837]

3 hours ago, Renton said:

Cabayeaye I reckon. 

Is that not the ginger quiff?

aka

ashleysskidmark

And a few other aliases I can’t remember off the top of my head 

[adios 717]

Poor Quiff has been accused of being every previous account at some point.

 

We know for sure he was Thompers anyway.

[Dr Gloom 19837]

Thompers, that was the other one. 

Quiff is by far his best creation, definitely the one he’s been able to maintain the longest without picking up a ban 

[SpaceCadet 5]

There'll be no aliases for me

 

I like my name, it was inspired by my rock band "the space cadets" who did absolutely fuck all back in the early noughties. 

[adios 717]

 

Sometimes I get the faintest impression their algorithm isn't completely on the up and up...

[Renton 17824]

So two things. I see the telegraph is reporting today that the NI issue has predictably scuppered progress with the EU. Forget about trade deals, we still can't agree on the withdrawal bill. And if this is not agreed it means no transition and we are going over the cliff. The EU are clearly not going to back down on this, as me and ewerk have been saying for months. The options are increasingly binary. Back down and stay in the CU AND SM or crash out next March. Both options are toxic for May.

 

Secondly, I'd recommend the "Inside Bussiness" podcast (R4) last night on the WTO. It's pretty clear from this that experts (from the WTO itself) are unanimous going for this option will be devastating to the UK and damaging for the EU. And this is without the threat of looming trade wars and removal of arbitration which will render the WTO toothless. In this scenario, the UK would be cast adrift in a dog eats dog jungle. Call me unpatriotic, but I wouldn't back us to succeed. 

[Rayvin 4964]

I still think they'll find some way of sorting the NI situation. There is no way May can let us crash out with no deal, and I think it very unlikely she feels she can keep us in the SM without the Tories being annihilated the next time out. If these were the only two options, they would have gone to the public with the situation and attempted to put a positive spin on it somehow. The fact that they're still acting as if a solution can be achieved, suggests to me that there must be -something- that they are working towards.

[Dr Gloom 19837]

9 minutes ago, Renton said:

So two things. I see the telegraph is reporting today that the NI issue has predictably scuppered progress with the EU. Forget about trade deals, we still can't agree on the withdrawal bill. And if this is not agreed it means no transition and we are going over the cliff. The EU are clearly not going to back down on this, as me and ewerk have been saying for months. The options are increasingly binary. Back down and stay in the CU AND SM or crash out next March. Both options are toxic for May.

 

Secondly, I'd recommend the "Inside Bussiness" podcast (R4) last night on the WTO. It's pretty clear from this that experts (from the WTO itself) are unanimous going for this option will be devastating to the UK and damaging for the EU. And this is without the threat of looming trade wars and removal of arbitration which will render the WTO toothless. In this scenario, the UK would be cast adrift in a dog eats dog jungle. Call me unpatriotic, but I wouldn't back us to succeed. 

it's going to be a massive fudge, we'll remain in the CU and SM and may will be the fall guy amid much gnashing of teeth from the Brexiters

[ewerk 26441]

Just now, Rayvin said:

The fact that they're still acting as if a solution can be achieved, suggests to me that there must be -something- that they are working towards.

Like every other red line they've had to pass?

Apparently the Norway model is the public's preferred option, even among leavers. This may be acceptable to the public as a whole but will piss off an awful lot of Tory voters.

[Renton 17824]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

I still think they'll find some way of sorting the NI situation. There is no way May can let us crash out with no deal, and I think it very unlikely she feels she can keep us in the SM without the Tories being annihilated the next time out. If these were the only two options, they would have gone to the public with the situation and attempted to put a positive spin on it somehow. The fact that they're still acting as if a solution can be achieved, suggests to me that there must be -something- that they are working towards.

 

I haven't got access to the Telegraph, but the front page says the EU has performed "a systematic and forensic annihilation" of option one and two. That only leaves option three (de facto SM and CU) as an option. 

[Rayvin 4964]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

Like every other red line they've had to pass?

Apparently the Norway model is the public's preferred option, even among leavers. This may be acceptable to the public as a whole but will piss off an awful lot of Tory voters.

 

But why wouldn't they have just come out and said where we are heading. How does delaying the inevitable help the Tories electorally? The sooner they come out and admit that there is no way of them actually achieving Brexit in any meaningful way (save for no deal), take the hit in the polls, etc - the sooner they can start recovering from it. These are career politicians, you would think that they would at least be savvy enough to avoid burying their heads in the sand just for short term popularity (that doesn't make any strategic difference to them at all).

[Rayvin 4964]

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I haven't got access to the Telegraph, but the front page says the EU has performed "a systematic and forensic annihilation" of option one and two. That only leaves option three (de facto SM and CU) as an option. 

 

If that's true then it's great news, but until May is actually saying it, I can't quite believe that we'd be so lucky.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Rayvin

[Renton 17824]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

But why wouldn't they have just come out and said where we are heading. How does delaying the inevitable help the Tories electorally? The sooner they come out and admit that there is no way of them actually achieving Brexit in any meaningful way (save for no deal), take the hit in the polls, etc - the sooner they can start recovering from it. These are career politicians, you would think that they would at least be savvy enough to avoid burying their heads in the sand just for short term popularity (that doesn't make any strategic difference to them at all).

Because May has been fire fighting for her political life every day since she became PM and is constantly kicking the can down the road. 

[ewerk 26441]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

But why wouldn't they have just come out and said where we are heading. How does delaying the inevitable help the Tories electorally? The sooner they come out and admit that there is no way of them actually achieving Brexit in any meaningful way (save for no deal), take the hit in the polls, etc - the sooner they can start recovering from it. These are career politicians, you would think that they would at least be savvy enough to avoid burying their heads in the sand just for short term popularity (that doesn't make any strategic difference to them at all).

Well they're politicians. They will never admit a mistake until they absolutely have to. And by the point they do they then won't have time to renegotiate anything other than SM membership. Which is perhaps what the majority of Tory MPs wanted all along, despite their claims to the contrary.

Alternatively they're maybe busy working on the magical technological solution to the border that everyone, bar them, know is impossible.

[Rayvin 4964]

6 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Well they're politicians. They will never admit a mistake until they absolutely have to. And by the point they do they then won't have time to renegotiate anything other than SM membership. Which is perhaps what the majority of Tory MPs wanted all along, despite their claims to the contrary.

Alternatively they're maybe busy working on the magical technological solution to the border that everyone, bar them, know is impossible.

 

Having looked at the story myself, I suppose it is possible that they thought one of their proposed solutions would work, and with the EU having just refused them all, it may be that we will get an announcement shortly. But I just can't bring myself to think that they could be this stupid. if it was as clear as you guys are saying, wouldn't the press be screaming it from the hilltops by now? The Tories have managed to cling on far longer than we thought, May is seemingly impervious to scandal in a way even Corbyn would be proud of, and Brexit continues to rumble on as if an outcome can be achieved that will take us out of the SM without destroying the country.

 

I basically expect that Northern Ireland will be allowed to keep SM status and that May will essentially set up a border between them and the rest of the UK, DUP be damned. Maybe she's counting on Labour to have enough defectors to get it over the line.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Rayvin

[Renton 17824]

Also, without a transition period I can't see how there is enough time to enact the repeal legislation. I've heard that this could be the most constitutionally devastating aspect of the whole thing. Come March, there will be no basis to a lot of our legal system. 

[Renton 17824]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Having looked at the story myself, I suppose it is possible that they thought one of their proposed solutions would work, and with the EU having just refused them all, it may be that we will get an announcement shortly. But I just can't bring myself to think that they could be this stupid. if it was as clear as you guys are saying, wouldn't the press be screaming it from the hilltops by now? The Tories have managed to cling on far longer than we thought, May is seemingly impervious to scandal in a way even Corbyn would be proud of, and Brexit continues to rumble on as if an outcome can be achieved that will take us out of the SM without destroying the country.

 

I basically expect that Northern Ireland will be allowed to keep SM status and that May will essentially set up a border between them and the rest of the UK, DUP be damned. Maybe she's counting on Labour to have enough defectors to get it over the line.

That would be the biggest u turn of all tie and spark civil unrest in NI. 

[ewerk 26441]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Having looked at the story myself, I suppose it is possible that they thought one of their proposed solutions would work, and with the EU having just refused them all, it may be that we will get an announcement shortly. But I just can't bring myself to think that they could be this stupid. if it was as clear as you guys are saying, wouldn't the press be screaming it from the hilltops by now? The Tories have managed to cling on far longer than we thought, May is seemingly impervious to scandal in a way even Corbyn would be proud of, and Brexit continues to rumble on as if an outcome can be achieved that will take us out of the SM without destroying the country.

 

I basically expect that Northern Ireland will be allowed to keep SM status and that May will essentially set up a border between them and the rest of the UK, DUP be damned. Maybe she's counting on Labour to have enough defectors to get it over the line.

Apart from the Mirror and the Guardian which of the papers doesn't support the Tories? 

Like others on here, I've read a great deal about the NI border problem and I've yet to hear one possible workable solution that doesn't involve NI staying in the SM and CU. It's the one issue in the entire process that cannot be solved by any other means.

[Rayvin 4964]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

That would be the biggest u turn of all tie and spark civil unrest in NI. 

 

But surely more politically palatable to the Brexiters than keeping the single market and freedom of movement.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Rayvin

[ewerk 26441]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

That would be the biggest u turn of all tie and spark civil unrest in NI. 

I'm not so sure it would. Certainly nowhere near what would happen if a hard border went up. There's a majority who want us to stay in the EU and the loyalist paramilitaries are a lot less dangerous than the Republicans.