Do you think we are still in a relegation battle...?

[The Fish 9230]

We're not out of the relegation fight for sure until we're top half imo.

[Renton 18043]

Well how do you define " relegation battle"? When you're mathematically safe? Surely most of us feel much more relaxed now'which is the main thing. I'm not remotely worried following the Chelsea game.

[Kitman 2188]

I'm more relaxed but we're not out of it yet imo

[ChezGiven 0]

Having just lost 10 in 13, only a Newcastle fan could predict we will only lose 2 in 15.

 

Statistically we tend not to lose 10 in 13, so that run is an outlier meaning a regression to the mean is possible. To balance this losing run out, a better than average run could be then seen as increasingly probable.

[luckyluke 1]

That's flawed logic.

 

I'm certainly not as worried as I was.

[ChezGiven 0]

It's not flawed logic, it might not happen but it assumes that in the long term we tend toward our average performance. From a pure probabilistic perspective, it's more likely that we will not continue with a trend that bucks the long term.

[Renton 18043]

That's flawed logic.

 

I'm certainly not as worried as I was.

 

Aye, it is. A bit like saying because I've tossed 10 heads in a row, I'm more likely to get a tails next time. Pretty sure regression to the mean doesn't apply to football in that way either; we've been shit end of, no random fluctuations needed to explain this run (this aimed at Chez).

Edited February 6, 2013 by Renton

[Renton 18043]

It's not flawed logic, it might not happen but it assumes that in the long term we tend toward our average performance. From a pure probabilistic perspective, it's more likely that we will not continue with a trend that bucks the long term.

 

There's no "average performance" though, particularly for an unsettled team playing opposition of varying quality. Nothing is constant, therefore random fluctuation has little effect. If we go on a good run now, that's not regression to mean happening, that's us improving.

[trophyshy 6443]

sorry went a bit hard on the acid, I meant Aston Villa.

 

 

Perfectly understandable in the circumstances.

[StellarStripes 0]

The last two results have pulled us away but not out of the shit.

 

We have given ourselves an unexpected 6 point platform to kick on now but we are not out of it just yet.

[2bias 3]

Next game is important. If we can get a point from Spurs then we're moving in the right direction, obviously other results still matter at the moment.

[David Kelly 1117]

Next game is important. If we can get a point from Spurs then we're moving in the right direction, obviously other results still matter at the moment.

I don't think the next game is massively important. Certainly if we did win we could theoretically move right up into mid table and things will look very good but I don't think losing away to Spurs would harm us in any great way. It's almost like a bit of a free game after winning the last two. If we hadn't won those then we'd be desperate for points and we'd all be saying that we can't see where a win will come from. But now we know we can win away and we know we can beat one of the top team and we know we can come back from being behind. The last two game matter much more than this next one. If we get beat off a very good Spurs team away then we just dust ourselves off and move on to the Southampton game and look upwards from there.

 

Overall I think it's madness to say we're not still in a relegation battle, our position and points total (combined with the fact that Reading and Southampton have both improved a lot lately) say the complete opposite. I am however confident that we will win that battle and we can finish the season strongly and safely in mid table.

[BigWalrus 0]

Yep, agreed. Next game is a "free game".

 

I hope Pardew isn't approaching it like a free game, and is heading out there to win, but the home game against Southampton remains a six pointer and is a more important match in my eyes.

[OTF 6368]

Wouldn't say we're IN a relegation battle.

 

One game at a time, concentrate on our performances.

[Gene_Clark 12]

I don't think the next game is massively important. Certainly if we did win we could theoretically move right up into mid table and things will look very good but I don't think losing away to Spurs would harm us in any great way. It's almost like a bit of a free game after winning the last two. If we hadn't won those then we'd be desperate for points and we'd all be saying that we can't see where a win will come from. But now we know we can win away and we know we can beat one of the top team and we know we can come back from being behind. The last two game matter much more than this next one. If we get beat off a very good Spurs team away then we just dust ourselves off and move on to the Southampton game and look upwards from there.

 

Overall I think it's madness to say we're not still in a relegation battle, our position and points total (combined with the fact that Reading and Southampton have both improved a lot lately) say the complete opposite. I am however confident that we will win that battle and we can finish the season strongly and safely in mid table.

 

I see what you're saying about Saturday being a "free" game, as the pressure has been lessened by the recent 6 points. However, surely we travel in better spirits than before Villa, which I see has now been subject to a Stalinist rewrite of being a "lucky" win. I'd like to make the point that goalkeeping of the standard Krul produced that night is as far from luck as you can get.

 

However, much as I hold Fritzl Tree in utter & abject contempt, I think he has, like the broken clock, managed to get it right once in a while. Saturday could define our season; a bad result & scores elsewhere going against us mean we are only 3 points above danger. At that point, I'd imagine the Europa League is immediately downgraded to the level of the FA Cup & we start from scratch to gain league points. An unlikely win, good fortune elsewhere resulting in a 9 point gap & we start to look forward to the rest of the season.

 

A draw, which my instinct is going for (Without any deep reasoning) & Pardew has to make some tough decisions.

[Happy Face 29]

Wouldn't say we're IN a relegation battle.

 

We had a Black Hawk down situation following Reading, but we've got most of our troops out of the area and just need to do a bit of diplomacy to get out remaining forces out of the country altogether.

[OTF 6368]

The whole battle terminology is a little excessive, the key for me will be maintaining the positive momentum. That doesn't necessarily have to be through winning every match, but should be going out there to win each of them.

[David Kelly 1117]

Yep, agreed. Next game is a "free game".

 

I hope Pardew isn't approaching it like a free game, and is heading out there to win, but the home game against Southampton remains a six pointer and is a more important match in my eyes.

Agreed, I certainly didn't mean to suggest we should take it easy or put out a weakened team or anything like that. We should be going looking for a win, it's just that if we get beat it certainly wouldn't be something I'd be terribly concerned about. Getting beat off Southampton on the other hand would be a big problem and I agree, any game against teams that are down there with us at the moment is a six pointer until we've pulled away.

[David Kelly 1117]

I see what you're saying about Saturday being a "free" game, as the pressure has been lessened by the recent 6 points. However, surely we travel in better spirits than before Villa, which I see has now been subject to a Stalinist rewrite of being a "lucky" win. I'd like to make the point that goalkeeping of the standard Krul produced that night is as far from luck as you can get.

 

However, much as I hold Fritzl Tree in utter & abject contempt, I think he has, like the broken clock, managed to get it right once in a while. Saturday could define our season; a bad result & scores elsewhere going against us mean we are only 3 points above danger. At that point, I'd imagine the Europa League is immediately downgraded to the level of the FA Cup & we start from scratch to gain league points. An unlikely win, good fortune elsewhere resulting in a 9 point gap & we start to look forward to the rest of the season.

 

A draw, which my instinct is going for (Without any deep reasoning) & Pardew has to make some tough decisions.

I only say free in that I don't think losing would hurt us much. Winning however would give us a massive boost and I agree completely that the last two games should give us plenty of optimism that we can get a result. I also completely agree that the Villa result was anything but lucky. We absolutely murdered them in the first half and our defense and keeper dug in and got us the result in the second. There's nothing lucky about players doing the job they're paid to do.

 

I'm not so sure about the downgrading of the wafa cup if we get beat off Spurs bit. We play Metalist on the Thursay after Spurs and then we have no game the next weekend until we play them again the following Thursday. I think putting out a strong team against them at home could see us going over there in a strong position, allowing us to be more protective of players for the away trip. I also think that if we lose to Spurs then put a weakened team out to Metalist we would be making a big mistake. If we put out a weak team, and lose at home then most likely make no effort in the away leg, we put ourselves in a position of three losses in a row which could completely decimate the confidence the last couple of weeks had brought. I don't think we will make that mistake.

[The Fish 9230]

Thing is, after the Spurs game we've 4 games that, in my opinion are all winnable. I don't think we would win all four, simply because 4 wins on the bounce is a tough ask for any team, but I'd certainly say 7pts is a reasonable expectation.

 

One point of frustration is that the Metalist away game is 3 days before the Southampton game. I'd have much preferred the home game to be the 2nd leg so those that do travel don't have as tough a week as they do now. I suppose if we can kill the tie in the 1st game and send a mixture of 2nd string and kids the 4,000 mile round-trip, that would suffice. However, I'm worried that we'll field a weakened team in the Europa and meekly limp out.

[Howmanheyman 27534]

I see what you're saying about Saturday being a "free" game, as the pressure has been lessened by the recent 6 points. However, surely we travel in better spirits than before Villa, which I see has now been subject to a Stalinist rewrite of being a "lucky" win. I'd like to make the point that goalkeeping of the standard Krul produced that night is as far from luck as you can get.

 

However, much as I hold Fritzl Tree in utter & abject contempt, I think he has, like the broken clock, managed to get it right once in a while. Saturday could define our season; a bad result & scores elsewhere going against us mean we are only 3 points above danger. At that point, I'd imagine the Europa League is immediately downgraded to the level of the FA Cup & we start from scratch to gain league points. An unlikely win, good fortune elsewhere resulting in a 9 point gap & we start to look forward to the rest of the season.

 

A draw, which my instinct is going for (Without any deep reasoning) & Pardew has to make some tough decisions.

Looks like Stalin made his subjective editing presence felt with the respective Ramires/Colo incidents over the weekend with one completely wiped from history with the other taking on an exaggerated importance to the game.

[sniffer 0]

Three points is three points. It doesn't matter where they come from as long as we get them.

[Park Life 71]

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We had a Black Hawk down situation following Reading, but we've got most of our troops out of the area and just need to do a bit of diplomacy to get out remaining forces out of the country altogether.

 

And then blame everything on the locals and namby-pamby doogooders and global warming.

[Park Life 71]

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