Politics

[Monkeys Fist 38836]

5 hours ago, ewerk said:

 

Reminds me of that classic Beach Boys track. 
 

“ Help Me Louise”

[Sonatine 10007]

 

[Dazzler 5555]

7 minutes ago, Sonatine said:

 

At least she’s self-aware I suppose

[Dr Gloom 19840]

14 hours ago, Monkeys Fist said:

Reminds me of that classic Beach Boys track. 
 

“ Help Me Louise”

 

[RobinRobin 9250]

23 minutes ago, Sonatine said:

 

 

Can we? Fuck no!! 🙂 

[Sonatine 10007]

 

[Monkeys Fist 38836]

1 hour ago, Sonatine said:

 

Word to the wise, tick “safe search” if you look up Truss Sounding on google. 

[Renton 17828]

 

Would you like to have some free food at a restaurant? Yes? Great, here's 2 million quid. 

This dippit cunt should be in prision. 

[Renton 17828]

Meanwhile:

 

 

[Rayvin 4964]

Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate

 

Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.

 

Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”

[Andrew 4229]

30 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate

 

Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.

 

Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”

 

Their attitude to the Cass report is potentially a banana skin as well. 

[RobinRobin 9250]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate

 

Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.

 

Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”

Because not voting for Labour won't result in the Tories sticking around and make things better for Gaza and the climate.

[NJS 3986]

It won't matter this time around but they're laying the seeds for 2029 though - if the tories do get their act together to some degree and they mirror places like Canada and New Zealand where sensible centrist so called  left of centre parties were elected with large majorities and then because they did the square root of fuck all had they their arses handed to them at the next election. 

 

This lazy "but you have to vote for us/Biden as the alternative is worse" may work once but seriously pissing off large demographics (see also the young in general) will cost them in the long run. 

[Gemmill 34631]

4 hours ago, Rayvin said:

Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate

 

Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.

 

Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”

 

I honestly think this sort of story is being encouraged, if not commissioned by Labour. By the sound of it they're shitting themselves about complacency given the polling lead. You've got two MRPs saying they're gonna walk to massive majorities, followed immediately by this "but they might not!" study. 

[Gemmill 34631]

 

 

Short thread. I think it's a nothing story, but one that's very convenient for Labour. 

 

 

[Alex 30462]

9 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

 

Short thread. I think it's a nothing story, but one that's very convenient for Labour. 

 

 

That’s definitely cherry-picking by the Guardian imo. If you look at Electoral Calculus then the Bristol one is predicted to be (one of two seats) won by the Greens and Sheffield Hallam is looking likely to become a Lib Dem seat (it has been previously - it was Nick Clegg’s seat at one point). That’s part of the same MRP polling model they use (updated end of March) which also suggests it’s going to be a 266 Labour majority, even taking those two seats into account. 

[Renton 17828]

This is like worrying about where Newcastle's second goal will come from in the next match we're playing, when we are 9-0 up in the current game. We have absolutely no idea what the political landscape will be after the next GE, yet before Labour have even taken power, some on here are desperate for them to fail.

The truth with all political parties - highlighted most acutely by the conservative party today - is that you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. How do you appease these "young urban voters" who are more bothered about Gaza and the environment at the same time as the soft tory vote who have different concerns and priorites? You need both to win a GE. It just highlights the need for PR really so NJS and Rayvin can vote with a prty who align with their beliefs and their vote counts. That's my biggest disappointment with Starmer so far, now seems a great opportunity to grab the nettle. 

[Alex 30462]

Also, if you look at recent voter migration polling figures. Labour, as well as having a large net gain overall (compared to 2019), have a net gain of voters from the Lib Dems. Labour lose some voters to the Greens but that gain from 2019 Lib Dem voters more than outweighs this. Also I don’t see where the article is coming from. It’s fucking obvious Labour won’t gain as many seats if the poll lead narrows significantly but the article just talks about if that happens. There’s no reason to think it will. The polls haven’t budged much in ages. Obviously there are outliers within that but not in terms of general trends. Gaza, rightly or wrongly, will probably become less of an issue too. More importantly (from a GE result point of view) there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that things are going to improve for the government or the PM. Tories don’t even like the latter 

Edited April 12 by Alex

[spongebob toonpants 3606]

13 minutes ago, Renton said:

yet before Labour have even taken power, some on here are desperate for them to fail.

I think this is completely wrong. I can't speak for anybody else but I am desperate for them to succeed.

Blair always said NewLabours biggest failing was being to timid early on.

 

In reality Starmer can't lose this election, even if the margin narrows. The country needs radical action to recover from the last 14 years. 

You mention PR but also nationalise the utilities a wealth tax, actually invest in the green new deal rather than scrap it, reengage fully with Europe, not to mention Gaza. There will never be a better time to do it. 

 

I just hope Starmer proves me wrong

[Dazzler 5555]

By the time the next general election rolls around the "young urban voters" will care less about foreign conflict and the long term issues surrounding the environment and more about the state of the economy - once they move out of their parents house and have to start paying their own rent/mortgage and bills etc. Cost of living starts to take more priority once you have to pay to live. They'll care more about the state of the NHS when they have to start making their own appointments to see the GP etc.

 

Then the next minority of "young urban voters" will come along feeling equally as isolated because there isn't enough focus on the next conflict, or the next culture war topic.

 

Priorities change over time, and the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Assuming the 'young' of 2024 will still give a shit about the same things in 2029 is mental.

 

Starmer is playing the game correctly, we don't even know what Labour's priorities are yet and he's already being judged.

[ewerk 26479]

32 minutes ago, Renton said:

It just highlights the need for PR really so NJS and Rayvin can vote with a prty who align with their beliefs and their vote counts. 

 

[ewerk 26479]

6 minutes ago, Dazzler said:

Starmer is playing the game correctly, we don't even know what Labour's priorities are yet and he's already being judged.

 

Increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP seems to be a priority for him.

[Rayvin 4964]

Just to clarify, I too want Labour to succeed. I just measure success in more than just winning this election. They have to actually also be good and useful in government.

[Rayvin 4964]

Also not so much desperate to fail as desperate to see other people also sharing my views trying to hold them to account, which makes sense you would think in ensuring that I don't just give up on the whole thing?

 

Granted Gaza and climate change aren't the sum total of my issues with Labour. I'd still vote for them despite those things if they were doing either of the two things that actually mattered. On Gaza we're just a pathetic nation with no actual leadership skills, doesn't matter who is in charge, it's going to be the same. On climate change, its the same. Baked into the national psyche at this point.

[Renton 17828]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Also not so much desperate to fail as desperate to see other people also sharing my views trying to hold them to account, which makes sense you would think in ensuring that I don't just give up on the whole thing?

 

Granted Gaza and climate change aren't the sum total of my issues with Labour. I'd still vote for them despite those things if they were doing either of the two things that actually mattered. On Gaza we're just a pathetic nation with no actual leadership skills, doesn't matter who is in charge, it's going to be the same. On climate change, its the same. Baked into the national psyche at this point.

 

Couldn't agree more with Gaza and CLimate change. We should do our bit within the remit we are now an irrelevance internationally. Losing our sense of exceptualism is key, ironically I think the tories have expedited this through the disaster of Brexit. 

I honestly don't think we disagree that much politically, we just see it from different angles. For me, getting the tories out of power for a generation is simply the most important thing. Got to stop the mad man knifing me before I think about healing the wounds.

There are arguments somehow if Labour need to form a coalition, particularly with the LDs, this could facilitate a route to PR. This seems extremely unlikely to me now. More likely I think, if the conservatives face near wipe out and Reform do not win a single seat with say 15% of the vote, ironically this may encourage these parties to adopt a PR stance and put more pressure on Labour. Who knows, but until this issue is sorted I don't see us getting the stability for long-term changes we need in this country regarding issues like climate change.