The Run-In

[Rayvin 6496]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Are we all forgetting that Pickford completely loses his head at SJP? Didn't he get dropped for one of their visits in the last 5 years cos it all gets too much for him? 

 

My old man is an Everton supporter and he claims that Pickford is much better now for this - don't think we can rely on that. He would also love to deny us CL football btw, I doubt there's going to be anyone anywhere as motivated against us reaching the CL as Pickford.

[Gemmill 52822]

9 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

we need six points, I think, to confirm CL with one of the wins coming against Chelsea 

 

If we get 6 points by beating Chelsea, we're fully sorted. 

 

If we get 6 points, but lose to Chelsea and: 

 

 - Chelsea beat Forest, we're sorted

 - Forest beat Chelsea, we'd be on 69 points along with Chelsea and it would come down to GD....which, if they've beaten us, probably doesn't go in our favour. 

[Gemmill 52822]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

My old man is an Everton supporter and he claims that Pickford is much better now for this - don't think we can rely on that. He would also love to deny us CL football btw, I doubt there's going to be anyone anywhere as motivated against us reaching the CL as Pickford.

 

I refuse to have nightmares about that short armed cunt.  He's not superhuman. 

[AgentAxeman 322]

Meh, would be good to get it but I'm not gonna spit the dummy out if we don't. Let's just wait and see.

[Craig 7425]

18 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

agreed but we’re not selling Isak unless he agitates for a move and in that eventuality we get £150m to rebuild this summer with the sort of free spending we haven’t seen since the early days of the takeover. I don’t want to lose Isak either and I expect us to get over the line for CL but either way, the future looks bright 

The issue is he's too good not to play in the CL and whilst he clearly loves it here, you wouldn't blame him for agitating the move that would provide him with that - it's more likely we'd have a line up of clubs come for him if we don't get over the line so for me, it's imperative we do so.

And while we would command a massive fee for him, there's no guarantee it would get reinvested as effectively. 

So for me I have absolutely no desire of a Europa League adventure. It'd be a massively disappointing end to the season.

[Dr Gloom 24360]

5 minutes ago, Craig said:

The issue is he's too good not to play in the CL and whilst he clearly loves it here, you wouldn't blame him for agitating the move that would provide him with that - it's more likely we'd have a line up of clubs come for him if we don't get over the line so for me, it's imperative we do so.

And while we would command a massive fee for him, there's no guarantee it would get reinvested as effectively. 

So for me I have absolutely no desire of a Europa League adventure. It'd be a massively disappointing end to the season.

 

it would be disappointing to fall at the final hurdle but i'd get over it pretty quickly. this season has been a ride. it's had everything, really: soaring highs - doing the double over Man U and beating Arsenal three times, mixed with some crushing lows, dropping points to teams we really should have beaten, and finally winning a bastard trophy. i'd have snapped your hand off for top 6 and a trophy at the start of the campaign. 

 

anyway, i still think we'll do it. chelsea is the big one. if we win on sunday i wouldn't be surprised if we go and win at arsenal again too. if we drop points to chelsea, it really is squeaky bum time for the run in. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Dr Gloom

[Holden McGroin 8058]

I don’t want him to leave either but we aren’t going to win the league in Isaks time year so let’s get a boat load of money, flesh the squad out and win the europa league.  
 

The world keeps turning.

 

[OTF 8765]

15 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I refuse to have nightmares about that short armed cunt.  He's not superhuman. 

Barnes, Gordon, Isak, Tonali (and Schär) can all hit a shot from distance which seems to be a recurring weakness of his. I'd be giving them all a license to shoot at will.

[Gemmill 52822]

It'll be a significant impact to how much we've got to spend over the coming windows if we don't make CL. Being in the EL will also impact our ability to return to Europe next season, never mind the CL. I'm not that chilled about not being top 5. 

[Dr Gloom 24360]

Just now, Holden McGroin said:

I don’t want him to leave either but we aren’t going to win the league in Isaks time year so let’s get a boat load of money, flesh the squad out and win the europa league.  
 

The world keeps turning.

 

 

i think we can compete for the title while isak is with but it does depend on finishing in the the CL places.

 

We won't be a million miles away from the teams around us if we have a good summer transfer window, boosted by CL money, keep our star players and sign 3-4 new ones who improve the first team.

[Craig 7425]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

It'll be a significant impact to how much we've got to spend over the coming windows if we don't make CL. Being in the EL will also impact our ability to return to Europe next season, never mind the CL. I'm not that chilled about not being top 5. 

Agree with this, and for all the reasons you state. I'm not CT levels of shitting myself about us having to win every game, but missing out on the CL will be more than a passing disappointment. Especially as it's highly likely that one of Spurs or Man Utd seem set to be in it next season. Having got ahead of both those fuckers at last, we don't need to be giving them the opportunity to get past us again.

[OTF 8765]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

It'll be a significant impact to how much we've got to spend over the coming windows if we don't make CL. Being in the EL will also impact our ability to return to Europe next season, never mind the CL. I'm not that chilled about not being top 5. 

 

This is my position as well. I'd console myself by affirming that at the start of the season I'd have snapped your hand off for winning a major trophy and qualifying for Europa, but there no denying that qualifying for the CL is the only way we can truly resume our team building momentum and enable the hot Mitch summer.

[toonotl 3699]

I'm in the CL is very very important boat too. The difference between getting CL and not getting CL could be and very likely would be enormous. As OTF mentions it makes Mitch's hot summer extravaganza what we all hope it will be. Also qualifying for the CL next season is likely to be much more difficult with the added burden of more games regardless of which European competition we're in. If we're missing CL this season, we're odds on to miss it next too. But with CL we can potentially recruit more players to help ease the burden of the extra games. I think everything points to CL qualification being an enormously important boost to the club's progress relative to the EL (unless we win it which isn't anywhere near as easy as it sounds).

[Rayvin 6496]

Also agree, CL qualification makes a big difference for us and falling into the Europa League gives us all the burdens of European competition with a fraction of the financial benefits. The only caveat is I could see us winning the EL, which would be pretty special.

[Toonpack 12215]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

agreed but we’re not selling Isak unless he agitates for a move and in that eventuality we get £150m to rebuild this summer with the sort of free spending we haven’t seen since the early days of the takeover. I don’t want to lose Isak either and I expect us to get over the line for CL but either way, the future looks bright 

This, he doesn't strike me as a down tools/hissy-fit sort of lad tbh, certainly seems quite reserved with little ego. He's still young, well paid (likely to get more in the summer from us) and he's got 3 years on his contract.

[Craig 7425]

10 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

This, he doesn't strike me as a down tools/hissy-fit sort of lad tbh, certainly seems quite reserved with little ego. He's still young, well paid (likely to get more in the summer from us) and he's got 3 years on his contract.

Conversely he's considered on of the best strikers in Europe and is coveted by several of the leading clubs. If we can't provide him with CL football and the likes of Barcelona go on the hunt for him, I'd expect his exit would be inevitable. 

I said back in March before the Cup Final that if you asked me what was more important, winning silverware or qualifying for the CL, I'd struggle to answer. Winning the cup was such an emotional experience, it was important in terms of the decades this club have been devoid of success. But most important for the future, is definitely CL qualification.

The Partizan Belgrade penalty shoot-out failure in 2003 is seared into memory. We went on a hell of a run in the UEFA Cup that year, but ultimately we lost ground on those teams around us. We need to avoid that happening again.

Edited 5 hours ago by Craig

[Dr Gloom 24360]

6 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

This, he doesn't strike me as a down tools/hissy-fit sort of lad tbh, certainly seems quite reserved with little ego. He's still young, well paid (likely to get more in the summer from us) and he's got 3 years on his contract.

If we do miss out on top 5 I wouldn’t blame him if his head was turned by Liverpool or another a big CL club coming in for him. Were that to happen we would get more enough money in the bank from selling him to offset missing out on CL. It would leave an Isak-sized hole in our squad, which would be a blow, but we apparently have the man in Mitchell to find a suitable replacement and to rebuild the squad in other areas that need to be improved. 
 

No point wetting the bed either way. CL is still in our hands. We have a big summer ahead of us whatever happens 

[Christmas Tree 5431]

1 hour ago, Craig said:

I'm not CT levels of shitting myself about us having to win every game, but….

On you get Bonny lad. No need to feel ashamed.

 

 

[Craig 7425]

8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

On you get Bonny lad. No need to feel ashamed.

 

 

No chance. If it's anything like you it'll have a breakdown every 5 mins.

 

[spongebob toonpants 4518]

I refuse to be in any way disappointed in a season in which we win a cup, beating Liverpool in the final to boot

 

As Gloomy said if we sell Isak due to missing out we won't miss the CL cash and I trust Howe to mould his replacement. Isak is obviously hugely gifted but you can't overestimate how much Howe's coaching has improved him since he got here. There's no guarantee he would reproduce his top form elsewhere

 

Europa would allow us to buy a ton of younger promising players for Howe to work his magic on, CL  would let us add a couple of quality 1st teamers. Both great options as far as im concerned.

 

Just glad I got to see this sort of thing in my lifetime

[Holden McGroin 8058]

19 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

I refuse to be in any way disappointed in a season in which we win a cup, beating Liverpool in the final to boot

 

As Gloomy said if we sell Isak due to missing out we won't miss the CL cash and I trust Howe to mould his replacement. Isak is obviously hugely gifted but you can't overestimate how much Howe's coaching has improved him since he got here. There's no guarantee he would reproduce his top form elsewhere

 

Europa would allow us to buy a ton of younger promising players for Howe to work his magic on, CL  would let us add a couple of quality 1st teamers. Both great options as far as im concerned.

 

Just glad I got to see this sort of thing in my lifetime

[strawb 4772]

Can anyone tell me who they think could afford Isak please? Cos I can’t see many if any, in the whole of Europe.

[Rayvin 6496]

Arsenal supposedly have 160m to spend. Supposedly. That's their entire budget though.

 

Chelsea could probably sell themselves to themselves or something.

 

That's all I've got. I don't think he's leaving this summer.

[The Fish 11437]

I think this is correct:

- Newc 63, max 72 
- ⁠Villa 60, max 69 
- ⁠Forest 61, max 70 
- ⁠Chelsea 63, max 72
- ⁠But both can’t get max, and if Chelsea and Forest draw, max is 68 and 70

So:
- 9 or 7 points = guaranteed top 5
- ⁠6 points of any kind means we are ahead of Villa due to GD
- ⁠7 points of any kind we are ahead of Forest unless a 10 goal swing
- ⁠beat Chelsea and another win = guaranteed top 5 as Chelsea and Forest cannot both then get 69
- ⁠beat Arsenal and Everton and lose to Chelsea it gets tricksy if everyone wins out. Would rely on Forest final game draw OR Chelsea win (to stay ahead of Forest) OR Forest win but we get better GD than Chelsea in last three games (to stay ahead of Chelsea), which is tough if they beat us. 
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and win another, need Villa to draw one no matter what happens. A Chelsea win at Forest means we   are good. A draw and we are good assuming Forest don’t turn over big GD. A Forest win means we need them to draw another OR we better Chelsea GD. 
- ⁠less than 4 points and we need a lot of help

 

As I say, I think this is right. 

In summary, 
- that point at Brighton was massive
- ⁠our run of high scoring wins against ManU, Leic, Ips and Palace has been invaluable
- ⁠Forest playing Chelsea is a huge help
- ⁠beat Chelsea and we are pretty much good
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and we are relying on Villa dropping points
- ⁠lose to Chelsea and we are in the shit.

[Rayvin 6496]

5 minutes ago, The Fish said:

- ⁠beat Chelsea and we are pretty much good
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and we are relying on Villa dropping points
- ⁠lose to Chelsea and we are in the shit.

 

This is exactly my view of it too. If we beat Chelsea then we're pretty much there, if we lose then we're pretty much done. I'm not even sure a draw helps tbh as I don't see Villa fucking up the home stretch.

 

I honestly would be surprised if we don't manage this though - we are a good team. We are a better team than Chelsea ffs, albeit Joelinton is a miss.