Rayvin

Ben Wallace has ruled himself out and seems to be about to endorse Johnson. There goes Mum's theory about him being any sort of decent person.

Fair enough, but the Tories have been kicking our asses up and down the pitch for 12 years. I'm fully on the nuclear option with this now, whatever it takes.

I was talking to my Mum yesterday - soft Labour voter, definitely the kind of person that 'the right' Tory leader could win over. She was talking about how Starmer has no conviction, she doesn't think he stands for anything, and then goes on about how Ben Wallace should take over for the Tories and how good he'd be. - the only reason it seems she'd vote Labour at the moment is that the Tories are terrible. But that's the danger - they're two parties in one at the moment and each side has been able to point to the other for blame in order to keep people onside with them, right throughout the Brexit fiasco. My worry is the slate gets wiped clean for whoever comes in and then Starmer is suddenly under a spotlight again in terms of being boring etc. He wasn't surging against the Tories until Boris started flatlining, Labour did nothing to make that shift happen other than staying the course and letting the Tories implode. If there's no more implosion, does that strategy still work?

Possibly true but would it be enough to sway the membership?

I thought of a better way of reconciling this anyway, at least I think. I will concede that if I knew that the Tories were beaten either way, I would prefer Sunak. Are you happy to agree that if the choice was 2 years of Boris or the Tories win the next election, you'd take Boris? Because I think if we get that far it's just down to our assessment of risk - and really that's a subjective and fairly personal thing.

We don't get those things back until the Tories are gone though, that's the thing. We cannot take 2+5 years of the Tories, the country wouldn't survive it in any sense. If Brexit was the result of austerity last time - which I fully believe it was - then I dread to think that another 7 years of Tory austerity off the back of Brexit would lead us to. We could be a fucking police state by the end of that because to make that fly they'd have to double down all the more on immigrants and the vulnerable. I get your point that they're going to lose no matter what, and on that basis I also can see why you prefer Sunak since he will do less damage in the process of getting to the GE. But I am just not as sure as you are that they don't bounce back and find something they can weaponise against Labour in the way they just always do. I have no trust in where we are as a country for that not to happen.

And only one of them had the ability to prevent the entire fiasco.

And on a different day of the week you'd say Corbyn was. But the real truth of it, is that the main reason for the leave vote was David fucking Cameron and 8 years of austerity.

The strawmanning is relentless on here so I wouldn't start that one. Johnson isn't our Trump, Brexit is. Johnson is the closest individual to that title, but the real chaos at the heart of everything in this country is Brexit. And frankly, it's an even worse version of Trump because it can't be voted out of office. We are stuck with it. And for the last fucking time, which particular side of the Tory party delivered Brexit to us? Which group of competent leaders cast the country down this path? Who let Johnson get his foot in the door in the first place because saving the party was more important to them than protecting the country? Why in fuck would you want those people back. Johnson at least doesn't seem to give a flying fuck about the Tory Party, in fact you could almost believe he's on a mission to destroy it. The threat is the Tory Party. The immediate threat is letting them austerity us through 2 years of a cost of living crisis. The damage and death could be untold - but because they look presentable in suits and say things in a vaguely professional way, people will nod along like the pack of sheep they are, and choke it down. This country is not educated enough to handle that and deal with it appropriately - we have too many people who think they've got the first fucking clue about how any of this works because they spent 10 mins googling it, too many people who wing their views based on how they feel in a given moment. Johnson has the advantage of repelling almost everyone whether they consider him at an intellectual level or, shudder as I say it, a gut feel level. But look, going round the houses now - we just have different views about the potential damage caused by either side. You're worried about democracy and institutions - I'm not, they're fucked already. I'm worried about people's lives.

Sorry like, but did you have trust in politics post-Brexit? When May took a slim majority and turned it into hard Brexit to save her party from schism, were you sat there thinking to yourself "well I still trust this process". Like fuck were you.

Right but as you say, done by his cabinet. One of whom - his second in command - is the present favourite after Johnson himself. And while all of those things are 'bad' they're also very standard fare for the Tory party in terms of where it is. I still wouldn't put any of that on the same level as austerity. I flinch when the notion that the other members of the Tory party not being as openly psychotic as Johnson means that they aren't as inwardly psychotic starts doing the rounds, and that's really what I'm speaking to here. The "sensible" Tories previously delivered us Brexit, austerity, and a health service that knew it was underprepared for a pandemic, reported as much, and which was ignored because preparing it properly would have gone against the austere grain. It's not Johnson's fault that the NHs was criminally underprepared for that pandemic (plenty is his fault in terms of handling it) - it's the fault of the "sensible" Tories. The death is on them just as much, if not perhaps more, than on Johnson. Apparently what Johnson has managed to do here is make everyone think the normal Tories are somehow acceptable or decent people. They're not. They never have been. They are the enemy. Johnson is a fucking fool and a bigger threat to them than to us.

He'll bend the rules somehow I'm quite sure but he's not going to rip up every institution - he'll be too busy presiding over the absolute clusterfuck that will be the Tory Party. I'd be amazed if he manages to do anything, half his fucking party will walk out upon him winning by the sounds of it We're off the deep end now anyway, may as well see this spectacular implosion through to the end. There was a delay to Brexit destroying the Tories but, have to say, their eventual meltdown has been very enjoyable so far. I'm going to add as well - other than mismanaging the pandemic and Brexit, both of which he had considerable help in from the very people he's up in against in this leadership race, what did he actually do? Broke trust in politics blah blah no one had any left anyway. Institutions were broken by Brexit - I mean I'm just saying really, other than scandal after scandal, crisis after crisis, his rule was fairly benign in terms of policy. Unless I'm forgetting something particularly noteworthy. And as a further note, he'll be on holiday half the time. I suppose I just don't understand why you see him as so much worse than Sunak - a man who stood shoulder to shoulder with him throughout literally all of that, a man who backed Brexit from the womb by the sounds of it, and a man who is so rich he has no comprehension of the challenges faced by normal people whatsoever. Sunak is just a competent Johnson. Why would we want a competent Johnson?

Bring it on, sounds even better

Aye it's painful, no doubt about that. Appalling, distasteful, and yet also the true face of the Tories. The longer that's held up in front of people the better. Still not convinced this is going to happen though.

Yes but he's clinically insane as evidenced by his follow up comment: I think there should be a general election because we need whoever becomes the leader - if it’s not Boris Johnson - we need to have the proper mandate. And the only way to get a proper mandate is to go to the people. I’m not pessimistic about the outcome of a general election.

I would agree if he had a 6 month run in to the election but he doesn't - it's 2 years. The wheels will be coming off long before that. The public have also consistently accepted the narrative that the Tories know what they're doing with the economy and austerity is a necessary evil.

They said about 60 MPs would go for him so I don't think those of us opposed to his return need to hit the panic button just yet. If he climbs over 70 then I might start to think it happens. Where are you tracking this btw, is it just from random tweets and so on?

This is a pointless argument because we disagree on the fundamentals of it. We both agree, I think, that Johnson would be an easier win for Labour than Sunak or Mordaunt. Where we disagree, is on the risk/reward aspect of it. A more competent Tory party is worth the risk in your eyes because they do less damage than Johnson (highly debatable since Johnson would be a lame duck and wouldn't implement the same levels of austerity) and therefore Labour have less to 'repair' when they inevitably win, which you have 100% faith in. I do not have 100% faith in it because that position is absurd in any sense, let alone the asylum of British politics. I'm on about 75% certainty that Labour win either way. So my calculation is fundamentally different to yours in that I have to add in a further 5 years of the Tories as an additional component of risk - and with that in mind, it's close, but I'd prefer Johnson. Their party is the mechanism for devastation, not Johnson. Same as the Republicans are in the US, and not specifically Trump. Do not lose sight of the real enemy in all of this. As I've said for a few weeks now, even with this poll lead I would want an electoral pact. I would want every gun we've got turned on the Tories. We cannot afford to be complacent now, we have to make sure they're put down. I have no clue why you're so laissez faire about it but I don't have it in me, this next election feels like it will be the most important one this country will have for a generation. I have plenty of work to do to build a life for myself that is worth living, I cannot afford to have 7 more years of the Tories, I just can't.

They're all loons IMO, some of them are just more honest about it than others. Seems unlikely he gets that 100 and the Tories seem to understand that they stand no chance if he takes over, so we may be back to 'strong and stable' Tory moderates from this point either way.

In an interview with LBC’s Andrew Marr, the former cabinet minister David Davis told Johnson “Go back to the beach”, while other Conservatives variously described the former prime minister as “electorally toxic”, “dangerous for democracy” and “Labour’s secret weapon”. The fact that they don't want him, is telling.

Me too on this last point - I just can't bear the thought of them getting away with this somehow. The entire right wing press will rally behind Mordaunt or Sunak who will remain credible for long enough to make it stick, then they'll come for Labour in the usual way that they always do. This poll lead has to survive two years of that - and maybe it can, but the Tories absolutely will attempt a reset on these two if they can, and the right wing press will support them in that. I don't think they'll win either... but this fucking party is like the zombie that you think you successfully brained only for it to lurch up a couple of minutes later - despite the fact that half of its head is missing - and take a chunk out of your leg. I'd be standing there unloading a shotgun into it's fucking face until there was nothing left but mush on the floor, at this point.

Where has this idea come from that the rest of the Tory party other than Johnson -aren't- psychopaths? Cameron killed 180,000 people with his ideologically driven austerity drive - a political choice. Johnson managed similar numbers, but he was aided by a pandemic tbf to him. It seems likely that the "moderates" are coming back with austerity in spades. I doubt Johnson would, he wants to be loved too much. As for 'the country can't sustain much more of this' I do appreciate all metrics for this sort of comment are subjective, but we passed that particular road sign about 5 years ago IMO. This country is fucked, is where I am. I'm borderline on it even being reversible at this point, I think we might actually just have fucked ourselves permanently into a much lower standard of life in the UK. But we did that over the past 12 years, not just through Johnson or Truss, not even just through Brexit. We did this under the moderate Tories, first and foremost. That point aside, with the 'hysterical' bit I was merely referencing the fact that you noted you were "aghast" that I would prefer Johnson and comfortable victory over moderates, austerity, and less comfortable victory. You want the moderates back in charge to impose 'sensible' austerity and all the harm that does, fair enough. I'd sooner take my chances with a giant infant who wants to be loved, at least until we can get rid of his party.

Somehow, despite the hysterical reactions to this view, I will soldier on.

My sentiments on the matter have no bearing on anything so you don't need too much hope mate Whatever will be is up to a handful of out of touch lunatics, not me.

Right but the Tories are now two parties within one. The moderates (by Tory standards) are now about to take back control of their party, and will be able to blame all the madness and chaos on the ERG lunatics, essentially creating a distinction in the minds of voters between them and what they replaced. So when the country starts to stabilise they will get the credit for that. My concern is that this position is the same one Labour have been relying on - the competent and capable ones in the room - if the Tory moderates get a crack at that first, Labour suddenly have a much harder time distinguishing themselves. We need to get these psychos out of office, and right now I'd take Johnson over anyone else on the basis that Labour are already set up to beat him. We need them divided. You might be right but I'll take 2 years of Johnson if it lowers the risk of 5 further years of the most destructive political party in history.