The Fish

Absolutely, doesn't take a new manager's impact into account, nor like you say injuries and suspensions. It's just one of those "All things being equal this is what we expect"... things.

Only has a year left on his contract, has said he wants to leave, rumours have him around £35m.

There are better defensive midfielders than McTominay, cheaper too. We could get Milinkovic Savic for c£35m, how much would Scotty Boy cost? £50m? More? I know Savic is a couple of years older, but the difference in quality is stark.

Nah, no chance. Too many teams in the mix and Hodgson will very quickly get their defence in shape, rely on Zaha, Eze to score the goals in 1-0 wins.

Probably mean they'll stay up, but it's not a great bit of strategising from their owners. They'll need to replace him next season if they're to kick on, right?

I don't know how it's modelled, but it's not as simple as the wisdom of crowds. They do use performance metrics and the like to inform their decision, then obviously the betting markets will be adjusted to account for bets placed and stuff. fivethirtyeight uses performance metrics to assign a value to each team and then, based on one team's strength vs the others, work out their expected return from the remaining games. Run that simulation many times to get a probability.

Betfair has Man Utd 1/10 and us 1/1 to finish top four. Liverpool and Spurs 9/5 and 23/1 respectively.

It's like the minute things are going their way they convince themselves it's all part of the plan, when things go wrong it's because there is no plan. When things were going well for us under Benitez it's because we could see the work he was doing on the shape, on the system. When Bruce was getting a similar points haul it was despite a lack of tactics. We could see that so we didn't throw our cocks around. There just seem to be any critical thinking over there. A PR person's in charge, that's brilliant! Why, why is it brilliant to have someone in charge who's remit is to alter your perception of reality? We've got a young owner with access to a lot of money! Do you? Have you really thought about it? This process is going brilliantly! What process? If they were like Brighton and Brentford then they'd deserve credit, but just like every other middling second tier side. Some good kids on loan, maybe one or two better than average players for that league, but plenty just filling a shirt and a manager who's got experience. Take that team and that manager and dump them in Stoke shirts and nobody would bat an eye. You want a process, have a look at Burnley, Sheffield United, Swansea. They score highly on the "Fair Game Sustainability Index".

He is, but only on the pitch. He looks a right sweetheart off it. Not like Shelvey who looks like a surly teenager being forced to play football when really he wants to be hanging out with his mates drinking white lightning in the park and setting fire to Lynx cans.

When we moved into this house 4 and a bit years ago, every night there was this indiscernible shouting outside about 7:30pm that would go on for about 10 minutes. Me and the Mrs would peer out the window to try and figure it out, but we never worked out what was going on. Finally one night I'm heading out for beer because I'm such a bloody bloke and I see this lad with Downs Syndrome, headphones on, shouting/singing into a hand held microphone presumably on his way home. Everybody's reaction to Ritchie in that video makes me think of the street's reaction to the shouty lad, just accept it as him being him.

They've got loads out injured. Henderson (GK), McKenna (CB), Boly (CB), Awoniyi (FW), Kouyate (DM), Scarpa (CM). Plus Wood (FW) is ineligible, Johnson (FW) has a small chance of playing, ditto Niakhate (CB), Yates (DM).

Jesse?

He's not all there, Ritchie, is he?

Read a piece in the Athletic that said that when that happened, (a combination of players returning to par performances and opposition identifying the threat) Eddie and Mad Dog actually leaned into that approach even more.

I wonder if this phase of our transformation means we have to lean into the dark arts a little more. Once we add more, better players we won't need to spoil the game and impose ourselves as physically as we do because we've have the technical ability to play around trouble more often. @Howay got it spot on, a bit of good coaching and he looks a totally different player. Joelinton deserves credit himself for going off and getting outside coaching when Bruce was in charge. He can still improve every part of his game, but he's now a very good Premier League midfielder.

I bet you all feel pretty silly now.

Liverpool are in dire need of an overhaul. Midfield especially and while there are plenty of pundits saying they should go out and sign Bellingham I don't think one hugely expensive addition sorts them out. They need multiple top quality central midfielders, they need a top quality centreback, and I personally think they need better at fullback. They've done very well to compete with Man City, but their ages, the way Klopp has them playing and the resurgence of Arsenal, Man Utd and to a lesser degree, ourselves, means that I'd not be surprised to see them miss out on Champions League football again at the end of next season. Which means it's even harder for them to convince the very best players, like Bellingham, to join them.

Yes? How can I help?

Then crack open youtube and watch the highlights?

I heard something about which days are best to buy flights. Worth a google as it can apparently save you a fair amount of money

Saw something on twitter that we're creating loads of chances from set pieces, but really struggling to put them away. Seems weird when you've got a legion of huge men you can fill the box with, that we don't score more from situations where their size is a distinct advantage. Burn, Botman, Isak are 6.4". Joelinton, Schar are 6'1", and Bruno and Gordon are 6' as well.

I don't watch Match of the Day for the highlights, I've seen our game (usually), I've probably watched the highlights on youtube. I watch it because I enjoy hearing people's opinions on football, learning about the other teams' successes and failures, hearing a lovely bit of banter between the pundits. Anyone who's watching Match of the Day these days just to see the goals is kind of missing the point. It could definitely be improved with a better standard of pundit. I've noticed a slight movement away from "well he gets the balls there and he shoots and that's a goal", talking more about shape and tactics and systems, but they could do more, imo.

Updated things and if you don't care about xG, look away now. Tottenham and Arsenal scoring significantly more than you'd expect given the quality of their chances. Liverpool and ourselves scoring fewer than you'd expect. Hopefully this win will improve the performances of the forward line and we'll start scoring more than we have. Surprising, to me at least, that Brighton have improved so much in terms of putting away their chances, somewhere they used to really struggle with. We still have the meanest defence in the league, even with Pope's recent acts of madness. Given up as many chances as Spurs despite very different playing styles, but we're conceding half as many per game. Bottom right is the best 1/4 to be in. Creating a good number of decent chances and not conceding many per game. Top left is bad, you're giving up a lot of chances and not creating much at all.

He's not yet hit the heights of pre- World Cup, but he was superb none the less. Honestly, I think when Trippier, Bruno and Isak hit full speed the first two will surpass even pre-World Cup performances.

Really important performance and result. Just a few thoughts, in no particular order. Isak, Bruno, Botman and Schar were superb, but Willock was Man of the Match for me. Didn't massively miss Joelinton really, but that could be because of the opposition. Thought Murphy did well in that limited role of his, and ASM looked quality in flashes. I'm looking forward to Isak getting a better understanding with Bruno and Trippier and ASM/Almiron. He looks like a very different threat to Wilson, in that he looks like a threat. Play like that, we'll beat Forrest.