Europe --- In or Out

[Christmas Tree 3997]

Oh, and...

 

“The share of new tenancies going to migrants is rising. Given there is little building of new social housing this is inevitably at the expense of other potential tenants”.

 

In conclusion, the report is a resounding reccomendation for a U.K. managed migration system.

Edited September 18, 2018 by Christmas Tree

[ewerk 26325]

7 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Depends whether you’re getting your news from Twitter or the actual report

 

“Lower-skilled UK-born workers are more likely to lose out.”

“There is evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact”.

“The earnings of the self-employed are lower and the gap is larger now than in the past”.

 

The report also recommends and end to free movement “With free movement there can be no guarantee that migration is in the interests of UK residents”.

 

And finally it suggests that there should be more restraints on lower skilled migration.

 

Pah! Facts.

 

 

 

Yeah, the thing is that I have been reading the report, maybe you should too. Let me add some parts of the report you selectively chose to leave out.

 

“Lower-skilled UK-born workers are more likely to lose out.”

Taking all the new evidence into account we found that migrants have no or little impact on the overall employment and unemployment outcomes of the UKborn workforce. The impact may vary across different UK-born groups with more negative effects for the lower-skilled and more positive effects for the higher-skilled. However, our robustness checks suggest that these findings are subject to uncertainty.

“There is evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact”.

We found some evidence suggesting that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

“The earnings of the self-employed are lower and the gap is larger now than in the past”.

We do not conclude what, if any, impact immigration has had on the economic prospects of the self-employed

The report also recommends and end to free movement “With free movement there can be no guarantee that migration is in the interests of UK residents”.

This does not mean that free movement is guaranteed to cause problems

“The share of new tenancies going to migrants is rising. Given there is little building of new social housing this is inevitably at the expense of other potential tenants”.

Migrants are a small fraction of people in social housing but a rising fraction of new tenants. 

[Alex 30396]

Unlucky, CT

[PaddockLad 14585]

 

Annihilated...again...

 

This however, is fuckin serious and what many of us feared 're the NHS

 

Rightwing thinktanks unveil radical plan for US-UK Brexit trade deal

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[Renton 17765]

CT still believes Farage, Johnson, Gove and Mogg have the working man's best interests at heart. Tragic. Tragically stupid I mean. 

 

 

[Alex 30396]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

CT still believes Farage, Johnson, Gove and Mogg have the working man's best interests at heart. Tragic. Tragically stupid I mean. 

 

 

He likes to kid himself he does too

[Christmas Tree 3997]

31 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

Yeah, the thing is that I have been reading the report, maybe you should too. Let me add some parts of the report you selectively chose to leave out.

 

“Lower-skilled UK-born workers are more likely to lose out.”

Taking all the new evidence into account we found that migrants have no or little impact on the overall employment and unemployment outcomes of the UKborn workforce. The impact may vary across different UK-born groups with more negative effects for the lower-skilled and more positive effects for the higher-skilled. However, our robustness checks suggest that these findings are subject to uncertainty.

“There is evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact”.

We found some evidence suggesting that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

“The earnings of the self-employed are lower and the gap is larger now than in the past”.

We do not conclude what, if any, impact immigration has had on the economic prospects of the self-employed

The report also recommends and end to free movement “With free movement there can be no guarantee that migration is in the interests of UK residents”.

This does not mean that free movement is guaranteed to cause problems

“The share of new tenancies going to migrants is rising. Given there is little building of new social housing this is inevitably at the expense of other potential tenants”.

Migrants are a small fraction of people in social housing but a rising fraction of new tenants. 

 

We can each play with sentences. Can we just agree that the report recommends managed migration?

 

(For clarity, the very position I have suggested and the majority on here have argued against).

[Renton 17765]

The report's conclusion is that there should be no preferential treatment for any particular nation, including EU, unless this forms part of a post-Brexit trade deal. It also recommends lifting the cap on immigration, meaning it will likely increase.

 

But this is in the context of Brexit and all the attendant economic damage that will do. The report recommends this because YOU voted for it, not on the basis of any evidence EU FoM was harmful.

 

The reality is we will get more immigration from non-EU countries, especially from poorer countries like  India and Pakistan, and less from our neighbouring countries. I'd like to see how man brexiters can say that's what they wanted with a straight face, Christian poles being replaced by Muslim Pakistanis. The other aspect of this is of course these people will work for even less. What effect will that have on wages?

[Alex 30396]

Fuck me, basic comprehension ftw

[ewerk 26325]

18 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

We can each play with sentences. Can we just agree that the report recommends managed migration?

 

(For clarity, the very position I have suggested and the majority on here have argued against).

You've missed the entire point of the report. The report is what to do after the implementation period is finished and is based on the assumption that free movement doesn't play a part in trade talks.

It in no way supports your argument that the end of free movement means that Brexit was the correct move. In fact it goes to great lengths to stress that free movement was never a major problem for the country.

 

[Renton 17765]

So, in conclusion the report finds no evidence FoM had any net harm on the economy. But fuck it, the gammons want Brexit regardless at any cost, even if it means friends and relatives lose their jobs. 

 

Yesterday we had JLR announcing a 3 day week. Today BMW announced it is shutting down on Brexit day for a Month (if it ever reopens). Countless warnings from Nissan and Honda they aren't viable outside the single market. 

 

Nice one CT.

[ewerk 26325]

That's more fake news. BMW and JLR are simply giving their workers time off to celebrate their new found freedom from the evil empire that is the EU. 

Edited September 18, 2018 by ewerk

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

JLR one of my old company's biggest customers. Shame. 

[ewerk 26325]

Quote

Theresa May will today reject Michel Barnier’s “improved” offer to solve the Irish border issue, warning that it still violates Britain’s red lines.

The EU’s chief negotiator said yesterday that the EU was preparing to table a new “backstop” proposal that he hoped the government would be able to support.

He said the new plan would not involve customs checks in the Irish Sea and would respect the “territorial integrity of the UK”.

But a senior government source said that Mr Barnier had still not dropped his insistence that Northern Ireland be treated as a separate customs jurisdiction from the rest of the United Kingdom.

“Any backstop will have to respect our red line that there is not a customs border in the Irish Sea,” they said.

“Mr Barnier has not said anything to suggest that his position has changed on that.”

Mrs May is expected to use a dinner tonight at an EU summit in Salzburg to press home this point to other European leaders.

She will insist that any solution must be UK-wide and stress that her Chequers proposals were designed to address this.

She will appeal to other EU leaders to ditch Mr Barnier’s “unacceptable demands”.

The prime minister is said to regard the next 48 hours as critical in persuading EU leaders to overrule the European Commission on the key issue of the Irish border.

Mrs May will call on them to “evolve” their negotiations over dinner in Salzburg today. She is expected to agree with Donald Tusk, the European Council president, that goodwill will be needed to avoid a disorderly Brexit.

Her key message will be that London could never accept a backstop that resulted in Northern Ireland having different customs arrangements to the rest of the UK.

The UK is not seeking to enjoy all the rights of EU membership without any of the obligations, Mrs May will say, an outcome she acknowledges would also be unacceptable.

“What we are proposing is a fair arrangement that will work for the EU’s economy as well as for the UK’s without undermining the single market,” she is expected to say. “This would be balanced by a strong security relationship to keep all our citizens safe from threats at home and abroad.”

Mr Tusk will appeal to other leaders to “take into account” the deep Tory divisions over Mrs May’s Chequers compromise that seeks to avoid a hard border in Ireland by committing Britain to remain aligned to EU rules. Speaking before the informal summit in Austria, Mr Tusk urged leaders to “act responsibly” to “avoid a catastrophe” in the shape of a no-deal Brexit.

Negotiations are focused on how a Brussels proposal for an “operational backstop” to prevent a hard border in Ireland relates to a “political declaration” on Britain’s future economic relationship. Britain is looking for an agreement on the backstop to keep Northern Ireland aligned with the EU’s single market and customs union that “would not need to be brought into effect” because the closeness of a future partnership to be agreed by the end of a transition period in 2021.

Hard to see which way this will go if May is determined to reject the EU's backstop. The EU knows that Chequers is unworkable but were willing to go along with it for now and possibly into next year in order to get us over the line. May is refusing to show the same sort of pragmatism.

It's okay for NI to have different social and potentially tax laws but customs is a step too far? Fuck off.

[Howmanheyman 26812]

I hope CT never changes tbh.

[Renton 17765]

Sounds like May's Salzburg speech went down like a bucket of cold sick last night. Brexit suicide here we come. 

[ewerk 26325]

It's hard to know why. All she did was tell them not to expect the unacceptable while asking to cherry pick from the single market and confirming that she's reneging on her prior agreement on NI with them. Oh and she also warned them not to expect any extra negotiating time with us because we're not interested. That'll fucking show them.

Edited September 20, 2018 by ewerk

[Renton 17765]

It's like a Mexican standoff, except May is pointing the gun against her own head.

 

Utterly baffling behaviour. 

[ewerk 26325]

And the EU haven’t blinked. Tusk has ruled out Chequers so we’re back to the drawing board and May has even less credibility than before if that’s possible.

[ewerk 26325]

Macron: "Brexit is the choice of the British people... pushed by those who predicted easy solutions... Those people are liars. They left the next day so they didn’t have to manage it."

[ewerk 26325]

She’s looking very sweaty in this press conference.

Gemmill can feel a twitching in his trousers.

[Gemmill 34440]

"The EU has concerns, I want to hear them"

 

Bitch, they've done nothing but tell you their concerns.  You keep ignoring them. 

 

She'll back down on everything they want. The Tories can't avoid to serve up the economic meltdown that will be No Deal.  They can't shift the blame for it to Labour, this is Tory-made from referendum to whatever comes next.  If they fuck it up, it's all on them, and they'll be done for at least one generation. 

[ewerk 26325]

She’s banging on about her deal being the only one on the table. Completely ignoring the fact that the EU have taken her plan, shredded it and taken a shit on it for good measure. Yet she’s standing there with a mess of shit and pulp in her hands promising us that this is a great plan.

[Alex 30396]

The irony is this is what she wanted, i.e. vote leave, Cameron goes, she gets to be Prime Minister.

[Meenzer 14042]