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I think all the major parties are against this (well, the Tories are claiming they are and the Lib Dems are saying they'll block). Blatantly Dave & Co. testing the waters though.

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Economy was growing at 2.5% when the coalition started to cut budgets, now the economy is completely stalled. We're in a great depression, output has still not returned to pre-2008 levels (i.e. we are a smaller economy than we were 3 years ago) and the outlook is grim. Osbourne, Cameron and many inexperienced investors have all claimed we have a debt problem.

 

The problem is not debt its lack of growth. Grow the economy and the deficit disappears. End off.

 

 

You do understand that we are about 1 trillion pounds in debt. Cutting the deficit is not the problem it's paying the debt which is a millstone and we can't pay back the debt if we still borrow more than we earn. And we can't borrow our way out of debt.

No, the defict is the problem as it drives up the yields on treasury bonds. Debt is not a problem if your creditors are happy. A deficit is a problem if your creditors think your economy is stalled. Think of it simply, if there is a deficit then the debt is getting bigger, if there is a surplus the debt is getting smaller. The only route to surplus is economic growth, not reduced spending.

 

Why? With no effective monetary policy to implement, cutting spending reduces aggregate demand, increases government welfare and reduces taxes. This makes the deficit worse which is exactly what is happening to the UK. Go back to IS-LM analysis and think it through. Deficit - > cutting spending - > increased deficit = shitstorm on the markets.

 

 

How do you decrease the deficit by borrowing more?

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Aye. It needs to work in the short term though. Governement spending in a liquidity trap has higher than normal multipliers. So you keep spending, increasing the overall level of debt but returning the economy to growth, the growth increases tax recepits and reducts government expenditure. The difference between these 2 is currently called a deficit. Growth turns that round.

 

Its not just about making the right steps to move forward, its also about not doing the wrong thing today. A recent article on voxeu.org used the brilliant phrase of 'a Greek style austerity-trap vortex' :lol: which refers to doing things the wrong way - i.e. trying to reduce spending in a liquidity trap which further exacerbates the deficit because it leads to (in this case today) a double dip recession.

 

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6942

Edited by ChezGiven
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The problems in the US and Eurozone have made us a safe haven for bond investors. We should be filling our boots, 2.54% for 10-year money.

 

In general the UK always gets too wrapped up in symbolism over pragmatism. Whatever the rights and wrongs over the 50p tax it doesn't raise that much in effect and we should be more concerned about creeping VAT rises, which while not as headline-grabbing as 'rich spivs get paid shitloads' will be far more damaging to lower earners in the long-run.

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Looks like it's all about to kick off with Greece finally defaulting. Bad new for France, their main banks wrote bucketloads of CDS on Greece, which is why they were so keen that any restructure of the bail-out package could not be interpreted as a 'default event' otherwise they would have to pay out on the CDS and leave the French system looking very sick.

 

Going to be an entertaining few weeks.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Now protests are going on in over 80 cities or planned to start in the next few days. Not many arrests here in Portland compared to other cities. Our mayor has waived the no camping law in the city. Can not say the same for other cities. The protests in New York seem to be the biggest so far. They also seem to be the worse for police brutality. For instance just saw footage where cops directed protesters into an area and then promptly ran them over with their motorcycles. Police there also forced hundreds on to the Brooklyn Bridge and then blocked their exit off. Arrested everybody on the bridge. Who knows if and what will come from all of this.

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Nowt will change in the USA. I'd be surprised if the news over there acknowledges it at all, as they are part of the cosy vested interests that are probably safe from the austerity measures we all have to put up with. The free market capitalist mentality is too entrenched in US culture, and I expect a real right wing swing towards the next generation of Ronald Reagan types. So the rich will get even richer, and the poor will get ground into the dirt.

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I just don't get American politics at times. Like that singer who's a Republican supporter who compared Hitler to Obama... this coming from the same people who think caring about ANY social reform makes Obama like Stalin. Now I hate people who do that entire "Hitler or Stalin" comparision but the Republicans themselves remind me of some of the Nazi's policies (obviously without the holocaust etc etc), insanely strong military and mis-use of the international community to get what they want whilst using propaganda (FOX News counts imo because it's just vitriolic spew) to make everyone think they're right, and that Communism/Social Reform is evil and any Liberal thinking is just done by hippies, idiots and people who hate the country. It's almost as if they want the rest of the world to think they're wankers.

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I just don't get American politics at times. Like that singer who's a Republican supporter who compared Hitler to Obama... this coming from the same people who think caring about ANY social reform makes Obama like Stalin. Now I hate people who do that entire "Hitler or Stalin" comparision but the Republicans themselves remind me of some of the Nazi's policies (obviously without the holocaust etc etc), insanely strong military and mis-use of the international community to get what they want whilst using propaganda (FOX News counts imo because it's just vitriolic spew) to make everyone think they're right, and that Communism/Social Reform is evil and any Liberal thinking is just done by hippies, idiots and people who hate the country. It's almost as if they want the rest of the world to think they're wankers.

 

Why do the republicans remind you of Nazi's any more than the democrats?

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I just don't get American politics at times. Like that singer who's a Republican supporter who compared Hitler to Obama... this coming from the same people who think caring about ANY social reform makes Obama like Stalin. Now I hate people who do that entire "Hitler or Stalin" comparision but the Republicans themselves remind me of some of the Nazi's policies (obviously without the holocaust etc etc), insanely strong military and mis-use of the international community to get what they want whilst using propaganda (FOX News counts imo because it's just vitriolic spew) to make everyone think they're right, and that Communism/Social Reform is evil and any Liberal thinking is just done by hippies, idiots and people who hate the country. It's almost as if they want the rest of the world to think they're wankers.

 

Why do the republicans remind you of Nazi's any more than the democrats?

Neither REALLY remind me of the Nazi's, the point is, in modern politics (especially US) everyone decides to either compare the other side to Nazi's or Communists, there's no middle ground, and because the Republicans have the Tea Party, which is so right wing it's insane.

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The funny thing is, both parties occupy exactly the same centre right middle ground. The Nazi/communist talk is all about the illusion of different policies.

 

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Aye they're much closer than British parties, even with New Labour, but I think they're going to polarize, the way the Tea Party's dragging the Republicans out further right, the Democrats will either follow them or occupy a more left ground, the way the public protest/hates politics over there at the moment, it's not viable for either of them to keep centre-right

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If you watch Michael Palin's New Europe, he talks to her daughter. I tell you she is :wank: tastic.

 

It seems that this Dr. Fox (not that one) and Andrew Warreity story might mushroom into another scandal. The CEO of something called the Portion Group said he used Andrew to gain access to Fox and the Dubai meeting was not a coincidence. There was something about Warreity being paid, and that he liked to travel 1st class but I wasn't really listening.

Edited by Billy Castell
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