Vladimir Putin and Russia

[Tom 13883]

 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

You have a line in the sand, presumably, over which you would determine that you would have the UK fight him. Ukraine isn't your line, that's fair enough - but your argument doesn't hold unless you have no line at all.

 

"We can let him have this one, it's not that bad" is a thin end of the wedge style approach that will lead to a cascading waterfall of landgrabs by 'strong men' the world over.

 

And also, I really don't see Putin firing nukes over a war that he himself is the aggressor in. If we were trying to take over Russia, sure. But this isn't what that is.

I don’t have a personal “line” at all. I would assume an attack on a NATO country triggers WW3.

 

That is a line that Putin would need to cross.

 

To simply decide to start WW3 today in my limited opinion would be madness. That wouldn’t just be the army getting involved, that could be you getting called up. 
 

Grim stuff.

 

Much rather suffer higher oil prices and try and screw them with sanctions etc.

[Renton 17829]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

A proportionate military response that ensures no quick victory in the Ukraine for Russia while also making very clear that there is no intent to 'chase' Russia back to Moscow. Using whatever means that would entail, I'm not qualified enough to say. If Putin starts losing, he'll lose his grip on power. I still do not believe that Russia will fire nukes over their own war of aggression, even if they fail.

If there is even a 1% chance of the latter happening I don't want to risk it. I would supply Ukraine with anything they ask for, and have a huge crackdown on all Russian assets and people in the West. These cunts will still be out shopping in Harrods today and sending Tarquinesky to Harrow after half term. They can get fucked.  

[PaddockLad 14638]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

I don’t have a personal “line” at all. I would assume an attack on a NATO country triggers WW3.

 

That is a line that Putin would need to cross.

 

To simply decide to start WW3 today in my limited opinion would be madness. That wouldn’t just be the army getting involved, that could be you getting called up. 
 

Grim stuff.

 

Much rather suffer higher oil prices and try and screw them with sanctions etc.

 

No fucker is getting called up CT man

 

Placating him has lead to this. The time for action is now . ....

[PaddockLad 14638]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

 

 

 

Cummings? Who "worked for a Russian airline in the 90s"?? FUCK OFF*

 

 

*obviously not you Tom

 

 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

1 minute ago, PaddockLad said:

 

No fucker is getting called up CT man

 

Placating him has lead to this. The time for action is now . ....

Me and you are too old, but if it comes to NATO v Russia then it’s going to take a lot more troops imo. That’s Rayvin.  

 

BTW, in this scenario I wouldn’t trust him not to use Nukes. He wants his place in history.

 

[Rayvin 4964]

Placating him has absolutely led to this. He's been testing us for years, to the point where I myself am no longer convinced that NATO actually -would- defend a NATO state from Russian aggression. Specifically because of that fear of being nuked doesn't suddenly magically go away if it's a NATO country. We'd be weighing the same damn things, the only meaningful thing that the NATO argument changes is that there's a bit of paper somewhere that 'makes things different'.

 

He'll pick a smaller NATO country next to test us further. Will we go to war for North Macedonia?

 

"Well idk man, he's got 8000 nukes... I think our line in the sand should be 'original NATO countries'".

 

IMO our line in the sand is at best Poland (which would be ironic) and at worst Germany itself. Up to those nations he has a free arm based on what we're seeing from the West.

[Gemmill 34640]

If Rayvin gets called up, we're fucked. 

 

And now I'll leave you all again to discuss the imminent end of the world as we know it. (give yourselves a lunch break, at least). 

[Rayvin 4964]

For whatever it's worth, if they initiate conscription because we get embroiled in a ground war somehow with Putin that actually requires us to pull from our own young people, I'd go and do it. Putin has already cost a significant chunk of all our futures anyway through Brexit, and I'm sick to death of the corrupt and broken right wings of our various countries getting into bed with him.

 

I'd be fucking useless and would be killed immediately, but I don't actually have a great deal to live for anyway so it's not that big an issue for me as it would be for some.

[Gemmill 34640]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

For whatever it's worth, if they initiate conscription because we get embroiled in a ground war somehow with Putin that actually requires us to pull from our own young people, I'd go and do it. Putin has already cost a significant chunk of all our futures anyway through Brexit, and I'm sick to death of the corrupt and broken right wings of our various countries getting into bed with him.

 

I'd be fucking useless and would be killed immediately, but I don't actually have a great deal to live for anyway so it's not that big an issue for me as it would be for some.

 

I'll be your biggest cheerleader. Just remember to duck at all times. And run in zig zags. I think you'll be fine. 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

For whatever it's worth, if they initiate conscription because we get embroiled in a ground war somehow with Putin that actually requires us to pull from our own young people, I'd go and do it. Putin has already cost a significant chunk of all our futures anyway through Brexit, and I'm sick to death of the corrupt and broken right wings of our various countries getting into bed with him.

 

I'd be fucking useless and would be killed immediately, but I don't actually have a great deal to live for anyway so it's not that big an issue for me as it would be for some.

Not sure how serious that last paragraph is, but if so I hope you reach out for someone to talk to 

[Dr Gloom 19841]

 

[ewerk 26486]

26 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

A proportionate military response that ensures no quick victory in the Ukraine for Russia while also making very clear that there is no intent to 'chase' Russia back to Moscow. Using whatever means that would entail, I'm not qualified enough to say. If Putin starts losing, he'll lose his grip on power. I still do not believe that Russia will fire nukes over their own war of aggression, even if they fail.

If Putin is backed into a corner there’s no telling what he’ll do.

[Rayvin 4964]

Just now, ewerk said:

If Putin is backed into a corner there’s no telling what he’ll do.

 

But that only happens if we chase him to Moscow, surely. He's not going to launch nukes over being pushed out of Ukraine. And if he's about to lose power in Russia, he won't be able to launch them anyway.

[ewerk 26486]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

Mike Ashley is currently licking his lips.

[Gemmill 34640]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

Mike Ashley is currently licking his lips.

 

Well it is lunchtime. 

[ewerk 26486]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

But that only happens if we chase him to Moscow, surely. He's not going to launch nukes over being pushed out of Ukraine. And if he's about to lose power in Russia, he won't be able to launch them anyway.

Failure in Ukraine would be seen as a massive failure for him. He could potentially use the deaths of Russian troops at western hands as justification. It wouldn’t be a rational move but then again neither was invading Ukraine.

[Rayvin 4964]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Failure in Ukraine would be seen as a massive failure for him. He could potentially use the deaths of Russian troops at western hands as justification. It wouldn’t be a rational move but then again neither was invading Ukraine.

 

Invading Ukraine is rational (for an ambitious and empire driven man) if he believes no one will stop him.

[Renton 17829]

27 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Placating him has absolutely led to this. He's been testing us for years, to the point where I myself am no longer convinced that NATO actually -would- defend a NATO state from Russian aggression. Specifically because of that fear of being nuked doesn't suddenly magically go away if it's a NATO country. We'd be weighing the same damn things, the only meaningful thing that the NATO argument changes is that there's a bit of paper somewhere that 'makes things different'.

 

He'll pick a smaller NATO country next to test us further. Will we go to war for North Macedonia?

 

"Well idk man, he's got 8000 nukes... I think our line in the sand should be 'original NATO countries'".

 

IMO our line in the sand is at best Poland (which would be ironic) and at worst Germany itself. Up to those nations he has a free arm based on what we're seeing from the West.

 

The line in the land is a NATO country man. The treaty would oblige us to act. It's quite an important piece of paper. The idea that Putin is going to roll up to the Brandenburg gate without opposition is silly. It's massively doubtful he can even take Ukraine imo. 

[Renton 17829]

11 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Invading Ukraine is rational (for an ambitious and empire driven man) if he believes no one will stop him.

 

What about Ukraine stopping him. An army of 250,000 soldiers with indirect Western support. 

[Rayvin 4964]

Just now, Renton said:

 

What about Ukraine stopping him. An army of 250,000 soldiers with indirect Western support. 

 

Without air support or access to the same level of sophisticated technology.

 

agorodnyuk describes multiple ground invasions on several fronts.

The situation is extremely tense, obviously. The first shock this morning was when there were missile attacks, rocket strikes and drone strikes. Some of the buildings in our armed forces are simply destroyed. All of them are military infrastructure. They [the Russians] are trying to break the border and to enter into the country with their ground forces. Ukrainian armed forces are trying to stop them. The city of Mariupol is pretty quiet. There is no breakthrough attempt. At the joint forces operation line [between Ukrainian and separatist forces) there is lots of artillery but no attempt to break through.

He adds:

There are thrusts taking place. They are quite close to the city of Kherson now. The situation is really critical there. They are also they are trying to surround Kharkiv. It seems like Kharkiv at the moment is the main target. They also try to get to Kyiv using one battlefield group. The group went from Belarus and it was stopped. There’s quite a bad road [to Kyiv]. It was strange that sent such a small group on such a road. Clearly it was miscalculation on their side for the moment. There were some Russian losses and on our side. Ukrainian armed forces are fighting quite seriously. There is no panic. There are attempts to resist and in many directions it’s working out.”

[Renton 17829]

And here's another fact I never knew, Ukraine has a population of 42 million, the vast majority of which do not want to be occupied. Honestly, I don't know how he could hold onto it?

[Gemmill 34640]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

What about Ukraine stopping him. An army of 250,000 soldiers with indirect Western support. 

 

Don't forget the Klitschkos have signed up too. 

[Renton 17829]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

Without air support or access to the same level of sophisticated technology.

 

agorodnyuk describes multiple ground invasions on several fronts.

The situation is extremely tense, obviously. The first shock this morning was when there were missile attacks, rocket strikes and drone strikes. Some of the buildings in our armed forces are simply destroyed. All of them are military infrastructure. They [the Russians] are trying to break the border and to enter into the country with their ground forces. Ukrainian armed forces are trying to stop them. The city of Mariupol is pretty quiet. There is no breakthrough attempt. At the joint forces operation line [between Ukrainian and separatist forces) there is lots of artillery but no attempt to break through.

He adds:

There are thrusts taking place. They are quite close to the city of Kherson now. The situation is really critical there. They are also they are trying to surround Kharkiv. It seems like Kharkiv at the moment is the main target. They also try to get to Kyiv using one battlefield group. The group went from Belarus and it was stopped. There’s quite a bad road [to Kyiv]. It was strange that sent such a small group on such a road. Clearly it was miscalculation on their side for the moment. There were some Russian losses and on our side. Ukrainian armed forces are fighting quite seriously. There is no panic. There are attempts to resist and in many directions it’s working out.”

 

Air support may come I guess. One thing is for certain though is the fog of war means it's impossible for any of us to appraise the situation. 

[Rayvin 4964]

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Air support may come I guess. One thing is for certain though is the fog of war means it's impossible for any of us to appraise the situation. 

 

True. I still feel as though he wouldn't have committed to this unless he was sure that he could take it, and that the West wouldn't intervene though. He's not an idiot.