Jump to content

Coronavirus


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 9.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Many heartfelt thanks for all the kind replies. I am feeling much better today, I've kept myself busy organising things which has actually helped. Dealing with personal effects is especially hard and

Great news lads the son in laws ex wife is home. It looks like she's going to be ok it's really brought it home how bad this is. Hopefully things can get back to some kind of normality in a couple of

My old man has days, at the most, left.    Good luck to anyone trying to stop me seeing him.    It’ll be The Rule Of Five.…   Five Knuckles.…       I’ll hit th

Posted Images

Yes. Once infected your body is hijacked into manufacturing many trillions of virions. The load you infect someone else with is dependent on whether you cough or sneeze, how close you are, and if you have a particularly high virion count yourself (e.g. are a super spreader). The former are modifiable, you can't change the latter and I don't see why that would change with time. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Renton said:

Interesting, but not entirely convinced because he didn't posit any reasons for the trends he was describing. Main thing was the disconnect between incidence rate and mortality compared with the first wave, prople don't seem to be dying so much. Why?

Younger more healthy demographic?

Better treatment?

A lot of at risk cohort already dead?

Virus is somehow less deadly?

 

Thing is, we're only in September. Its true winter I fear most. 

Or maybe it’s not worked it’s way up yet

9606E7F0-A755-4BD3-9DC5-2468D85A3BEB.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

hopefully the virus is mutating into something less scary, and deaths remain low as cases rise in winter months. 

i suspect it's a lot to do with young people passing it around to each other as they go back to the pub, university etc while older and more vulnerable are still being cautious. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

hopefully the virus is mutating into something less scary, and deaths remain low as cases rise in winter months. 

i suspect it's a lot to do with young people passing it around to each other as they go back to the pub, university etc while older and more vulnerable are still being cautious. 

I'm not dismissing the social side of things but I'd also guess more young people are returning to work in people-facing jobs as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Renton said:

Interesting, but not entirely convinced because he didn't posit any reasons for the trends he was describing. Main thing was the disconnect between incidence rate and mortality compared with the first wave, prople don't seem to be dying so much. Why?

Younger more healthy demographic?

Better treatment?

A lot of at risk cohort already dead?

Virus is somehow less deadly?

 

Thing is, we're only in September. Its true winter I fear most. 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/

 

The video below (the format looks a bit wackjob but the content is not dissimilar to the Sky News one - edit to clarify this. The content is different but the data used, ie cases up, no rise in deaths, is similar) suggests that the above link explains in part why we are seeing an increase in positive tests without an equivalent increase in hospitalizations and deaths. I'll let you read the CEBM piece cos it'll make more sense to you than it does to me, although I understood their conclusion. 

 

Video below puts some context around it and is only 8 minutes long. 

 

 

 

Edited by Gemmill
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Renton said:

Interesting, but not entirely convinced because he didn't posit any reasons for the trends he was describing. Main thing was the disconnect between incidence rate and mortality compared with the first wave, prople don't seem to be dying so much. Why?

Younger more healthy demographic?

Better treatment?

A lot of at risk cohort already dead?

Virus is somehow less deadly?

 

Thing is, we're only in September. Its true winter I fear most. 

Also seems to completely ignore the 4 week lag between catching the disease and dying. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, spongebob toonpants said:

Also seems to completely ignore the 4 week lag between catching the disease and dying. 

 

Screenshot_20200916-152719_Google.thumb.jpg.1f8346598bebdeea90eadd4ffbe0c508.jpg

 

Nah, Spain (shown above) started to see its cases shoot up from the last week of July on. Still no similar increase in deaths though. France is below - their rise in cases came a week or two later, but still they haven't seen a knock on effect on deaths. 

 

The rise in deaths that should have happened by now if this was the same as March/April, just hasn't happened. 

 

Screenshot_20200916-152928_Google.thumb.jpg.519987f88b682148ca8528ce0f70489c.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

I couldn't find the hospitalisation figures but I think I'm right in saying that hospitalisations are nothing like what we would expect either. 

 

You're right about the vulnerable being at risk through the winter though. But something weird seems to have happened in the interaction between cases and deaths. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hospitals are beginning to struggle in some areas of France and are rising fairly rapidly in the NW here. I agree the two peaks in the incidence graphs are apples and pears. But I also know about exponential growth. I fear we may be earlier in a second wave than the incidence data suggests. Doesn't tell you where it will go though. These things are always much worse i  winter. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it might mean 0.01 am friday morning, so not a weekend night. Also pubs aren't shutting anyway and the few I've been to here have pretty strict social distancing. Only 2 pubs admittedly. I don't think it will be like last time. Hope it has some effect but I'm doubtful. Childcare will be the biggest issue. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...