Deep shit?

[Gemmill 35332]

 

I've added a column so you can see what the previous PPG required was the last time I did the spreadsheet.  Mainly because it's enjoyable to see almost everyone's PPG required go up, whilst ours (and Brentford's) has come down. 

 

I'm not sure there's much of interest to call out.  Maybe that Burnley have lost twice since the last time we looked at this, so their PPG required has taken a good hit - up from 0.9 to 1.3, which is the biggest increase on the sheet, but that's partly the effect of them having played more games since last update.

 

Everton's PPG required doesn't look too bad, but Lampard's record is W1, L4, for an average of 0.6 points, so they really do look quite fucked. 

 

Looks like it's between Burnley, Everton and Leeds for 18th.  

 

The more safe we look, the more this is just an exercise in enjoying how much worse off everyone else is than us.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Gemmill

[wykikitoon 16994]

5 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I've added a column so you can see what the previous PPG required was the last time I did the spreadsheet.  Mainly because it's enjoyable to see almost everyone's PPG required go up, whilst ours (and Brentford's) has come down. 

 

I'm not sure there's much of interest to call out.  Maybe that Burnley have lost twice since the last time we looked at this, so their PPG required has taken a good hit - up from 0.9 to 1.3, which is the biggest increase on the sheet, but that's partly the effect of them having played more games since last update.

 

Everton's PPG required doesn't look too bad, but Lampard's record is W1, L4, for an average of 0.6 points, so they really do look quite fucked. 

 

Looks like it's between Burnley, Everton and Leeds for 18th.  

 

The more safe we look, the more this is just an exercise in enjoying how much worse off everyone else is than us.

 

 

I've just done a sex wee

[Christmas Tree 4003]

7 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I've added a column so you can see what the previous PPG required was the last time I did the spreadsheet.  Mainly because it's enjoyable to see almost everyone's PPG required go up, whilst ours (and Brentford's) has come down. 

 

I'm not sure there's much of interest to call out.  Maybe that Burnley have lost twice since the last time we looked at this, so their PPG required has taken a good hit - up from 0.9 to 1.3, which is the biggest increase on the sheet, but that's partly the effect of them having played more games since last update.

 

Everton's PPG required doesn't look too bad, but Lampard's record is W1, L4, for an average of 0.6 points, so they really do look quite fucked. 

 

Looks like it's between Burnley, Everton and Leeds for 18th.  

 

The more safe we look, the more this is just an exercise in enjoying how much worse off everyone else is than us.

 

 

Where does the 36 points required come from

[Gemmill 35332]

Just now, Christmas Tree said:

Where does the 36 points required come from

 

Arbitrary. It'll probs end up being 1 or 2 points less than that, but had to measure against something and that seemed reasonable. 

[wykikitoon 16994]

10 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Where does the 36 points required come from

Still bricking it 😂

[MrBass 2300]

33 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I've added a column so you can see what the previous PPG required was the last time I did the spreadsheet.  Mainly because it's enjoyable to see almost everyone's PPG required go up, whilst ours (and Brentford's) has come down. 

 

I'm not sure there's much of interest to call out.  Maybe that Burnley have lost twice since the last time we looked at this, so their PPG required has taken a good hit - up from 0.9 to 1.3, which is the biggest increase on the sheet, but that's partly the effect of them having played more games since last update.

 

Everton's PPG required doesn't look too bad, but Lampard's record is W1, L4, for an average of 0.6 points, so they really do look quite fucked. 

 

Looks like it's between Burnley, Everton and Leeds for 18th.  

 

The more safe we look, the more this is just an exercise in enjoying how much worse off everyone else is than us.

 

 

Everton look deeper in the shit after tonight’s hammering 

[Christmas Tree 4003]

15 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

Still bricking it 😂

Absofuckinglutely  

 

Bar Norwich and Everton, all our remaining games are against teams above us in the league.

 

And yes I’m not including the last game of the season because if it comes down to that, …..    Fuck that  

 

I just can’t see where anything more than 5 or 6 points are coming from.

 

[Kitman 2188]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Absofuckinglutely  

 

Bar Norwich and Everton, all our remaining games are against teams above us in the league.

 

And yes I’m not including the last game of the season because if it comes down to that, …..    Fuck that  

 

I just can’t see where anything more than 5 or 6 points are coming from.

 

5 or 6 points will probably be enough though. And that’s before you take into account that we are one of the form teams, unbeaten in 8 games, have great cohesion and morale and are hard to score against. We’re likely to pick up some draws against the teams above us at the least.

[Alex 30747]

Another reason not to worry is CT being so worried. 

[toonotl 2488]

Can we add a column for CT's worry level? It's not only an important metric, it's what the supporters of the sheet demand.

[RobinRobin 9430]

3 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

Bar Norwich and Everton, all our remaining games are against teams above us in the league. 

 

When did Burnley overtake us? 

[Andrew 4263]

2 hours ago, RobinRobin said:

When did Burnley overtake us? 

 

Did you just stop reading his post at that sentence?

[Ayatollah Hermione 12866]

I certainly did

[RobinRobin 9430]

2 hours ago, Andrew said:

 

Did you just stop reading his post at that sentence?

[Dr Gloom 20106]

9 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

Absofuckinglutely  

 

Bar Norwich and Everton, all our remaining games are against teams above us in the league.

 

And yes I’m not including the last game of the season because if it comes down to that, …..    Fuck that  

 

I just can’t see where anything more than 5 or 6 points are coming from.

 

It would take a monumental fuck up to be relegated from this position. We probably only need another two wins to be safe, we’re in great form and there are plenty of winnable games remaining. This is nothing like the situation six weeks ago. The unbeaten run has saved our season. Get the tumble dryer on

[Christmas Tree 4003]

8 hours ago, toonotl said:

Can we add a column for CT's worry level? It's not only an important metric, it's what the supporters of the sheet demand.

Not the best example given current events, but currently I’m at Defcon 2, fully prepared to move to Defcon 3 if we beat Southampton.

 

So yes, a Defcon column would be great.

[Alex 30747]

Basic maths suggests we’re almost certainly safe. I suspect you realise this though. Relegation form gets us to 36 points, which is likely to be more than enough. We would likely stay up with one win from our last 12 games

[Alex 30747]

5 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Not the best example given current events, but currently I’m at Defcon 2, fully prepared to move to Defcon 3 if we beat Southampton.

 

So yes, a Defcon column would be great.

Defcon Marmite 

[Christmas Tree 4003]

27 minutes ago, Alex said:

Basic maths suggests we’re almost certainly safe. I suspect you realise this though. Relegation form gets us to 36 points, which is likely to be more than enough. We would likely stay up with one win from our last 12 games

Im just a worrier  

 

I know we’ve been on a good run, but we’ve also come up against a few teams going through bad patches.

 

Our remaining games are all against “decent” teams except Norwich, where the likes of Burnley have 5 games left against bottom 7 teams.

My head tells me it will be Norwich, Watford and Everton for the drop.

 

As I said, a worrier.

 

 

[Alex 30747]

11 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Im just a worrier  

 

I know we’ve been on a good run, but we’ve also come up against a few teams going through bad patches.

 

Our remaining games are all against “decent” teams except Norwich, where the likes of Burnley have 5 games left against bottom 7 teams.

My head tells me it will be Norwich, Watford and Everton for the drop.

 

As I said, a worrier.

 

 

Well you can see Burnley getting out of it but it’s very difficult for them to get above us, that’s the key. And even if they do, the others down there all need to do that too. I’m not including the bottom two as they’ve got next to no chance of getting out of it now imo. I’d be worried if it was Bruce in charge but Howe and the players aren’t about to let their standards slip. Then you have ASM coming back to full fitness, Bruno to get more and more game time (you’d think), Wilson and Trippier to return for the last few games. We’re not safe but we are very close 

[toonotl 2488]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

Not the best example given current events, but currently I’m at Defcon 2, fully prepared to move to Defcon 3 if we beat Southampton.

 

So yes, a Defcon column would be great.

Make it happen, Gemmill!

[Gemmill 35332]

Fucking absurd man. As game after game ticks by, and the path to survival gets harder for the teams below us, and easier for us, as every weekend we pick up points and pretty much unfailingly everyone below us fails to pick up points.

 

"Oooo but I'm worried that all these teams that keep losing are suddenly about to start winning.... Oh and also that Newcastle who haven't lost in 8 are suddenly going to be incapable of picking up any points."

 

It's actually illogical, which tbf is perfectly on brand. 

[Gemmill 35332]

2 minutes ago, toonotl said:

Make it happen, Gemmill!

 

If there's a column gets added, it'll be called CT CUNT FACTOR and it will never shift from 100%.

[Dr Gloom 20106]

3 minutes ago, Alex said:

Well you can see Burnley getting out of it but it’s very difficult for them to get above us, that’s the key. And even if they do, the others down there all need to do that too. I’m not including the bottom two as they’ve got next to no chance of getting out of it now imo. I’d be worried if it was Bruce in charge but Howe and the players aren’t about to let their standards slip. Then you have ASM coming back to full fitness, Bruno to get more and more game time (you’d think), Wilson and Trippier to return for the last few games. We’re not safe but we are very close 

Aye, we’d have to go on a run akin to the early months of the season to go down from here. Not happening with Howe in charge and the likes of shelvey playing for their futures. There’s a reason they’ve all raised their game and shelvey issued an apology to the fans for a slightly below par performance. They know this club is going places and they want to be involved. 
 

It looked bleak in January but we got most of the points required to stay up from this unbeaten run, massively taking the pressure off ahead of the tricky final four games of the season.  

[Gemmill 35332]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Aye, we’d have to go on a run akin to the early months of the season to go down from here. Not happening with Howe in charge and the likes of shelvey playing for their futures. There’s a reason they’ve all raised their game and shelvey issued an apology to the fans for a slightly below par performance. They know this club is going places and they want to be involved. 
 

It looked bleak in January but we got most of the points required to stay up from this unbeaten run, massively taking the pressure off ahead of the tricky final four games of the season.  

 

 

That's the league table from when the Great One predicted Everton to go down. At that point in the season we'd played 14 and picked up 0.5 points per game. We were objectively terrible and the worst team in the league. 

 

EVEN IF we inexplicably returned to that form, and picked up exactly 0.5 points per game for the remaining third of the season - the sort of form that if played out over an entire season would leave you with 19 points total - we would STILL have 34 points, which would probably be enough to stay up. 

 

This is the level at which CT is operating. Even Steve Bruce would eventually have accrued more than 0.5 points a game. The idea that Eddie Howe's Newcastle are about to go backwards to that extent is crackers. Not to mention the idea that the teams below us are about to exhibit the sort of turnaround that we have to get past us.