The Fish

this has been terrifically helpful.

Why so circumspect? Were you the bean counter that moved the brewery to Tadcaster? You seem to know a lot about it. What have you got to hide?!

I have all my needs satisfied. I've got my Audible seminar on football analytics, a comic and my frozen-grape-chilled glass of Gewürztraminer

Anyone know a decent gardener in the Sluice area? My folks need someone to do some work to repair after the storm, and to maintain.

Worked for a company that did market research in the booze industry. They had people travelling all over the world talking to producers, distributors and the like. Always came back with bottles of spirits and wines. Every Friday was basically a piss-up after lunch. Your first Friday is traditionally a baptism of firewater.

Definitely, and depending on the weather and if you fancy another 30 minutes on top, I'd recommend Abersoch too.

He should learn from @Christmas Tree . That's how you WUM.

If only they would get behind their team, then it wouldn't matter.

I'd expect once Wilson is match fit, Wood will be consigned to the bench, or when we need a wrecking ball option up front.

What with Ken sniffing around desparate to say I know nowt about football? Afraid not, brevity had it's day, now we drone on and on. It'll end the war quickly and save millions of lives.

Depends on the opposition really. For me, Bruno starts. He's the best player of the 5 by a mile. If we're looking to play more counter attack against a high line (top tier sides) we play him and Shelvey with Joelinton just ahead of them. Big Joe's energy, physicality and tactical flexibility is a good screen for those two to play behind. Playing more controlled game against an entrenched, organised defence (Burnley, et al) we drop Shelvey and play Joe and Joe ahead of Bruno. Lots of movement, lots of pressing high up and Willock's runs into the box will be useful. Playing a game against a more passive, open defence (Norwich, Watford), drop Joelinton, play Bruno and Jonjo with Willock playing closer to Wood as part of a four man attacking unit.

Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester United - Premier League 2021/2022 Statistical Preview (whoscored.com)

Everton's games in hand are away to Watford and away to Crystal Palace. Everton have won once away from home all season, and that was under Benitez at the beginning of the season against Brighton. Burnley's game in hand is Villa. Burnley v Everton means either both teams drop a potential 3pts, or one of them gets nowt. their other games are, on paper, an opportunity to pick up points, however, Burnley aren't 19th because of magic. They've won 3 Premier League games. From where do you conjure the phantasm of a good Burnley? If they were performing well I'd maybe be able to make a case for it, but they've failed to scored in 6/9 last games and only Norwich have scored fewer across the season. You can't win if you don't score.

Predicted it? No, probably not, but shown the likelihood of it? Yeah I could. At the time, Man Utd weren't in great run of good performances, their previous three results were; a 1-0 win at home to Palace (xG 0.87 xGA 0.52), then a laboured and somewhat fortunate draw against Young Boys in the CL, then a laboured win over Norwich. So you've a team out of form (performance-wise), 7th in the league, away from home. If you go to whoscored.com, their score predictions for these games run like this; Man Utd 1-3 Loss Watford 2-2 draw Leeds 1-2 Loss Everton 2-2 draw Villa 2-2 draw West Ham 2-2 draw Brentford 1-0 win Brighton 2-1 win Southampton 1-1 draw So even their model said the most likely results would only see us lose twice. Which is some turn around for a team that, at the start of that run were sitting in 19th, with 1 win, and the worst defence in the league.

Next season. Then I can try and set something up using this; https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2122/E0.csv

You were literally having a pop and mentioned my wife's name. No idea why you're linking Wraith's Holly, but I guess to truly understand what in the fuck you're blethering on about I'd also have to be shitfaced on cheap wine.

Did it for 20/21, but haven't maintained my spreadsheet for 21/22, so it'd be too big of a task as it takes into account; Home and away strength of both sides, GF, and GA for both sides, xG and xGA etc. I'd have to punch all that in for the 29 games played out so far and I cba. It's not just a case of eyeballing the league table and stating Watford are bad, therefore they're a soft touch at the Amex (say). Watford are good on the road, Brighton aren't great at home. But weighted by the respective teams overall performance, you'd still say Brighton were favourites, but it's a lot closer than you might think for teams in 13th and 18th. So a draw is the most likely event. I want to include some stuff to account for league form, and what happens to form once there's nothing to play for, but I need to analyse each on-the-beach team over a large enough sample size to see if it makes a difference? Do they play with more freedom, or is pressure the thing that got them to safety in the first place?

He definitely could. People made out like a narrow, undeserved win against what is still a bottom half of the table Newcastle without many of the best players was some kind of turning point for their season. Crystal Palace have just shown everyone how to beat Everton. Their wide men had all the time and space they wanted and their central midfield is combative, but aimlessly so. They've got West Ham next, then Burnley. Two organised, combative sides who could easily undo the Everton defence. Then 5 games where it's hard to see them picking up a point, let alone the wins they'll need to really get themselves out of danger. Honestly? I think this could go down to the last day. Say we're 13th, mathematically safe. Would you rather Burnley win and we finish 14th, if it meant Everton went down regardless of their result at Arsenal?

I like it.

Yes they do, and yes they do. I'm a comparative moron and I can knock up a serviceable model to account for both of those things.

fwiw, I agree that there's a tiny chance of us going down, so tiny it's basically smaller than CT's button mushroom on a cold day. That said, your PpG forecast model doesn't account for the strength of opposition that each club faces. It reduces every game to a league average. There are some games that are all but unwinnable for the teams down there, (away to Chelsea, Liverpool or Man city e.g.). Also, Everton are more likely to beat Leeds at Goodison than they are Watford, due to their respective strength on the road. Also, Watford have actually only conceded 21 goals on the road, 1 fewer than Man Utd, yet have won 8 fewer points. How does your model handle that shit? huh? So, in your next draft, please weight the strengths of each team before forecasting. Ta

Yeah people are digging out Burn or ASM, it's reductive and fails to take into account there was an entire game played where numerous mistakes or bad decisions were made by the whole team. We didn't lose that game because Burn was turned in the 103rd minute, or ASM was shoved off the ball. It was because we didn't create sufficient good chances, or take the half chances that fell our way. That's partly a lack of quality, partly a failure to manage the game as well as we have done before. I remember Robert being singled out, or Ben Arfa. It's often those that have the talent to occasionally win the game on their own who are blamed when they don't do it to dig the team out of a hole. I mean, fair enough to blame a defender who has a mare, or a keeper who flaps, but saying ASM lost us the game because he was arguably fouled, or because he didn't pass after beating 2 or 3 is a joke. Even if he did pick out a player, who was in the box? Joelinton? Wood? Murphy? Hardly a list of predatory finishers, is it? Easier to find a scapegoat than work out the more complex issues that lead to a loss.

Should I get a Playstation or an Xbox lads? Guide me. Seems I can get an Xbox S for £250, or a Playstation5 for £450?

Well hot damn, WOOOO, I tell you whut, that is exhibit A in the case for denying visiting rights.

Leave her? I'm worried this is the ground work for an alibi