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Europe --- In or Out


Christmas Tree
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2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

 

That doesn't punish them as much as it punishes us ffs. If anything, it'll just incentivise their homegrown industries to step into the shoes of the British ones they were buying from, in order to cut us out over time. We could arguably do the same thing back to them, but I'm not sure we have the capability to do so on the same scale.

 

Im not suggesting it as a punishment. My point is that if they are going to continue to be so awkward in these preliminary negotiations, then it’s lkkely this will continue when we move onto trade.

 

At at some point soon it may be better to let British business know we are going to WTO so they can plan accordingly.

 

I have no doubt that no deal is worse than a good deal but I don’t think It would be a catastrophe.

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1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Im not suggesting it as a punishment. My point is that if they are going to continue to be so awkward in these preliminary negotiations, then it’s lkkely this will continue when we move onto trade.

 

At at some point soon it may be better to let British business know we are going to WTO so they can plan accordingly.

 

I have no doubt that no deal is worse than a good deal but I don’t think It would be a catastrophe.

 

Based on what? What the extreme right wing of the tory party are telling you, and contrary to just about everybody else, including most of your party? Name me a single credible economist who doesn't think this scenario would be extremely damaging to our economy. 

 

What happened to the cracking deal anyway? You really bought into us having leverage because of BMWs and prosecco didn't you? What a mug. 

Edited by Renton
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At first of course the Brexiters were telling us how easy it would be to get a cracking deal with the EU and the rest of the world. Now they're telling us it was never about the money, it was about taking back control. They're happy for us to take the economic hit on their behalf of course, estimated at 6k per household if WTO happens.

 

Funny thing is, money isn't important until you've got none. Then it becomes literally everything. If the economy tanks as much as some predict, that will literally be the end of the NHS as we know it. 

Edited by Renton
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2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

CT’s right. Best to strike no deal now so everyone has fair notice to get the hell out of dodge.

 

I can see the UK becoming like the Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B, with pensioners, taxi drivers and phone sanitation engineers basking in their new found sovereignty. 

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44 minutes ago, Renton said:

At first of course the Brexiters were telling us how easy it would be to get a cracking deal with the EU and the rest of the world. Now they're telling us it was never about the money, it was about taking back control. They're happy for us to take the economic hit on their behalf of course, estimated at 6k per household if WTO happens.

 

Funny thing is, money isn't important until you've got none. Then it becomes literally everything. If the economy tanks as much as some predict, that will literally be the end of the NHS as we know it. 

 

Where did you pluck 6k a household from?

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Nothing is going to happen we'll still be more or less in even when we leave. No party or leadership has the balls to take the huge risks leaving with a bad deal entails. There will be backtracking of course but it will be disguised as common sense. :lol:

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22 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Where did you pluck 6k a household from?

 

Treasury and OECD "pessimistic" predictions. I've posted the reports on here before.Reflects the fact that WTO would be, well, catastrophic. Best case scenario (Norway option) is estimated at 2k per household loss, there goes the family holiday I guess. Middle case scenario (Switzerland) is 4k. Of course these are average figures. Nissan aren't going to hang around with 10k tariffs on their cars, do Sunderland is uber fucked under WTO.

 

Never mind, this is only expert analysis, and we all know what you think about experts.

 

BTW, what do you think the government won't publish the latest industry impact reports they commissioned on Brexit? Their pathetic excuse is that they don't want to show their hands during negotiations, knowing full well the EU will have done their own analysis. Personally I think it's obvious they don't make good reading and their suppression is disgusting. Surely we have a right to know? 

 

Edit:

 

Here's the treasury forecast:

" The analysis in the long-term document sets out a range for each alternative, with a central estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) would be £4,300 lower in 2015 terms for each household after 15 years and every year thereafter."

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

 

Edited by Renton
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14 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Treasury and OECD "pessimistic" predictions. I've posted the reports on here before.Reflects the fact that WTO would be, well, catastrophic. Best case scenario (Norway option) is estimated at 2k per household loss, there goes the family holiday I guess. Middle case scenario (Switzerland) is 4k. Of course these are average figures. Nissan aren't going to hang around with 10k tariffs on their cars, do Sunderland is uber fucked under WTO.

 

Never mind, this is only expert analysis, and we all know what you think about experts.

 

BTW, what do you think the government won't publish the latest industry impact reports they commissioned on Brexit? Their pathetic excuse is that they don't want to show their hands during negotiations, knowing full well the EU will have done their own analysis. Personally I think it's obvious they don't make good reading and their suppression is disgusting. Surely we have a right to know? 

 

Edit:

 

Here's the treasury forecast:

" The analysis in the long-term document sets out a range for each alternative, with a central estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) would be £4,300 lower in 2015 terms for each household after 15 years and every year thereafter."

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

 

 

This is the project fear make believe stuff that predicted a recession and a million on the dole as a result of just a vote to leave. :lol:

 

Part of the problem with this whole debate is people on each side over egging their case to the extremes.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

This is the project fear make believe stuff that predicted a recession and a million on the dole as a result of just a vote to leave. :lol:

 

Part of the problem with this whole debate is people on each side over egging their case to the extremes.

 

 

Sure there'll be over egging in the transition, after all, Rome wasn't built without cracking the shell when they made a Caesar omelette, but when the willy waving is finished then common sense will prevail and we'll see no difference that I'll particularly notice. #teampositive

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18 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

This is the project fear make believe stuff that predicted a recession and a million on the dole as a result of just a vote to leave. :lol:

 

Part of the problem with this whole debate is people on each side over egging their case to the extremes.

 

 

 

This is a treasury forecast based on the effects of us leaving the EU, not uncertainty caused by the referendum, which to some extent was mitigated by emergency actions of the BoE.

 

Curious why you ignore this and all the other reports by "experts" and trust the likes of Redwood tbh. Well not really curious, you're just being your contrary self. 

 

So, what's your opinion on the industry impact reports, commissioned and paid for with tax payers money? Do you not think we have a right to see them? If not, why not? 

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7 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

The latest study out today says that a no deal / WTO would cost the average family an extra 68p a day. Big difference to £6,000 a year.

None it doesn't. That was just on food, so it'll bankrupt you.

 

You seriously are an idiot.

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Oh just £240 a year, nowt given the huge disposable incomes the average family is struggling to know what to do with under this government. Especially with everyones salaries rising more than the current 3% inflation.

Edited by TheGingerQuiff
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6 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

This is a treasury forecast based on the effects of us leaving the EU, not uncertainty caused by the referendum, which to some extent was mitigated by emergency actions of the BoE.

 

Curious why you ignore this and all the other reports by "experts" and trust the likes of Redwood tbh. Well not really curious, you're just being your contrary self. 

 

So, what's your opinion on the industry impact reports, commissioned and paid for with tax payers money? Do you not think we have a right to see them? If not, why not? 

 

First, that data is all Osborne PF stuff that has been ridiculed by everyone.

 

As for the reports you refer to what is the benefit in their release other than to be used in project fear stop Brexit campaigns. Sensible for the Govt to know where out strong / weak points are for the negotiations. Parliament has already voted and agreed the govt should not release any negotiation sensitive information.

 

Overall, I think the full on remoan campaign post the vote and Labours game playing has done nothing but harm to the whole process. 

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6 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

First, that data is all Osborne PF stuff that has been ridiculed by everyone.

 

As for the reports you refer to what is the benefit in their release other than to be used in project fear stop Brexit campaigns. Sensible for the Govt to know where out strong / weak points are for the negotiations. Parliament has already voted and agreed the govt should not release any negotiation sensitive information.

 

Overall, I think the full on remoan campaign post the vote and Labours game playing has done nothing but harm to the whole process. 

:icon_lol:

 

Always someone else's fault. 

 

Show me where that report has been "widely ridiculed"?  :icon_lol:

 

Are you admitting the contents of those reports are pessimistic? You must be if you think it can be used by project fear. Personally I think industry has every right to know how Brexit will affect them. I think as part of a democracy we all do. Shame you want to cover it up. 

Edited by Renton
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4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

First, that data is all Osborne PF stuff that has been ridiculed by everyone.

 

As for the reports you refer to what is the benefit in their release other than to be used in project fear stop Brexit campaigns. Sensible for the Govt to know where out strong / weak points are for the negotiations. Parliament has already voted and agreed the govt should not release any negotiation sensitive information.

 

Overall, I think the full on remoan campaign post the vote and Labours game playing has done nothing but harm to the whole process. 

String 'em up, Fawlty! Traitors harming the process! :lol:

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