ewerk 26484 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 (edited) None of that analysis takes into account the bespoke deal that David Davis is going to bring us on the back of a unicorn. Edited February 7, 2018 by ewerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Renton said: The NE will take a 16% on GDP hit with no deal and 11% with a comprehensive FTA. Even the latter figure is more than we spend on healthcare. Nice one CT. In the interests of balance the figures quoted are the effect on economic growth. Not GDP as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Actually I don’t have the time right now to look at that fully so please feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 It's GDP loss after 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anorthernsoul 1221 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 274 pages on Brexit and not one mention of what it will mean for the price of cocaine in the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 14069 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 It'll be moreish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 On 29/06/2016 at 22:26, Christmas Tree said: Part of the problem is you are asking me to give you the answers to a very complex organisational and negotiating plan that the best brains in the land are only beginning to grapple with. Obviously I can't do that and I have no idea what basis of a plan Gove or Boris have rattling around in their heads. (None you cry). As I said on Brexit day 1, what European leaders say in the first couple of months while feelings are raw, might well be different when tempers cool and their own economical and political realities kick in. I can only give you my wish list / thoughts rattling in my head that made me come to my decision. Would like (In no order) Access to single market for trade and services Control over immigration / borders Free trade deals with rest of world Sovereignty over our own laws / policies (eg Democratic accountability / vat on fuel) Separation from an union that wants to expand further geographically and politically. Separation from the unstable Eurozone and the problems we could get dragged into financially and due to free movement. UK decision on TTIP It's late, I may have missed some off. Now you will tell me I can't have all them based on current relationships and what is currently being said by the EU. But that's for the negotiations to sort out. Even if we had to have free movement of people, the other stuff would be worth it, however imo they will have to deliver something on immigration otherwise a certain section of the 52% will be unhappy. The only big problem for me is the level of pain we have to endure to get there. If it's "choppy waters" that can be controlled then my vision of the end game will be worth it. If it's a disaster ours few years, then that's a heavy price to pay that wouldn't sit well with me. I appreciate that if you don't think the majority of that list is a good place to be, then no choppy waters to get there would be acceptable. I also bare in mind this is a left leaning board and there have been lots of comments about Tories pinching holiday time off etc. Naturally I don't see any of that happening, particularly given the bloody nose the political class have just been given. Anyway, an honest view. Right or wrong, time will tell. My wishlist hasn’t flip flopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said: My wishlist hasn’t flip flopped Nice to know you're risking economic oblivion for such ridiculous reasons. TTIP ffs. Do some research and feel suitably embarassed. Fox and company want TTIP on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34635 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 CT is Skint Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 So, Nissan is leaving if Brexit doesn't go right. Good stuff, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 On 11/05/2016 at 11:17, Christmas Tree said: Still haven't really got a clue about this. Can't really see any way it greatly effects my life, but driving past Nissan today sealed it for me. Is it really worth throwing it all up in the air and risking this type of inward investment? No Siree. In it is. Read my lips, no flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, ewerk said: Read my lips, no flip flops. I was eventually persuaded by the better argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 So losing Nissan would now be worth it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, ewerk said: So losing Nissan would now be worth it? Nissans going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 12768 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Whatever keeps this thread rolling onwards to fill the time in his shitty arsed day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Let's do a CT risk benefit. The main risks are 16% loss of GDP, devastating the NE economy and the prospects of a generation, loss of inward investment, including Nissan, and countless other ones from collapse of NHS to the troubles reigniting in Ireland. These are CT's stated benefits: 1) Access to single market for trade and services This isn't a benefit, we already have the best access possible by being a member. 2) Control over immigration / borders We can't have this without a border in NI and losing access mentioned in 1) 3)Free trade deals with rest of world Never been explained how FTAs outside the EU will be better than in. Means we're out the CU, so hard border in Ireland, major non tariff barriers at Dover. As well as tariffs. 4)Sovereignty over our own laws / policies (eg Democratic accountability / vat on fuel) We were always sovereign, as Brexit shows. There has to be supranational laws and courts to govern trade. WTO is an example. 5) Separation from an union that wants to expand further geographically and politically. We had option for opting out ever closer union. 6) Separation from the unstable Eurozone and the problems we could get dragged into financially and due to free movement. Not in Eurozone. 7) UK decision on TTIP Ha ha. You're an idiot. Yep, definitely worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 You're deliberately ignoring all the cracking trade deals we're going to sign, negotiated by people like... er, this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Quote UK negotiators have been warned that the EU draft withdrawal agreement will stipulate that Northern Ireland will, in effect, remain in the customs union and single market after Brexit to avoid a hard border. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, ewerk said: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says Seems to me we are being forced into a binary choice sooner rather than later. May can't keep kicking the can down the road. The choices we have are: 1) Stay in SM and CU under a Norway plus arrangement. This solves the NI issue as well as many others but would result in less control which would make the Brexiteers self combust in rage, destroying the Tory party. 2) Leave with no deal. This will lead to economic Armageddon and a return of the troubles. Also likely to destroy the Tory party. The shit is about to hit the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 30465 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Maybe Cameron is the best PM ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 It’s almost like the hard Brexiters have forgotten what was agreed in the first phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17828 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This is funny, from the FT. Well it would be, if it weren't so tragic. Got them over a barrel, eh CT? Quote Britain has a message for the rest of the world after Brexit next year: please pretend we are still in the EU. A “technical note” prepared by the British government calls on non-EU nations to treat the UK after Brexit in March 2019 as still covered by more than 700 treaties Brussels has struck with other third countries on everything from fishing rights to data sharing. “To coin a phrase, they are going to tell the world that Brexit does not mean Brexit,” said one EU official. https://www.ft.com/content/c4a0e4c0-0cf9-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 19841 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Renton said: Seems to me we are being forced into a binary choice sooner rather than later. May can't keep kicking the can down the road. The choices we have are: 1) Stay in SM and CU under a Norway plus arrangement. This solves the NI issue as well as many others but would result in less control which would make the Brexiteers self combust in rage, destroying the Tory party. 2) Leave with no deal. This will lead to economic Armageddon and a return of the troubles. Also likely to destroy the Tory party. The shit is about to hit the fan. It’s going to be option 1. I keep hearing hard brexiteers refer to option 2 as a clean break. Like curlng out a perfect solitary turd, that you only wipe once just to check, knowing the paper will be clean, then stand up and admire the thing of beauty left behind in the toilet bowl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26484 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 This is the level of discourse you get with a Brexit supporting MP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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