2025/26 - Generic NUFC Chat. Cunts ☑️

[Holden McGroin 8258]

  On 08/04/2023 at 21:41, Dr Gloom said:

I don’t see them winning at our place 

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I don’t see them winning any games but somehow they manage to. They are awful and play shite negative football but are somehow in top 5.

[spongebob toonpants 4637]

  On 09/04/2023 at 07:35, Alex said:

So it was your fault then? 

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Let's put it this way, I'm never starting a match day thread

 

I have been called  Jonah before

[Alex 38403]

  On 09/04/2023 at 08:09, spongebob toonpants said:

Let's put it this way, I'm never starting a match day thread

 

I have been called  Jonah before

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I think we’d have won the league cup if I hadn’t watched it live 

[Gemmill 53642]

For those worrying about facing Nee Baals's Beige Brigade, I've looked at their last 7 games (where they've seemingly become world beaters) and our last 7 games. 

 

I've considered their xP (it's a thing, deal with it) compared to their actual points, and ours.  And I've applied a colour scale so you can see at a glance how close the performances have actually been to the results. Ignore the figures in the "Diff" column that are greyed out - I've not included negative figures (where the club has got fewer xP than actual points) to avoid the negatives messing with the colour scale. 

 

First thing to point out is that Villa are running 6.5 points ahead of expectation over the last 7 games.  Which is a canny bit and much higher than our 2.03, which basically all came from us mugging Brentford yesterday. 

 

Villa did the same against Chelsea - managing an xP of only 0.39 but running out 2-0 winners. Which btw, is the only time they played a "big" team in this recent run.  Compare that with us picking up 2.91 xP against Man United - basically a MURDER of a team better than any they've played recently.

 

In fact, all of our wins against everyone bar Brentford have been very convincing, as evidenced by the difference between xP and actual being really less than half a point for all of them.  

 

Anyway, hopefully you can see there's a lot more red on Villa's side than on ours.  In other words, Villa's results have been a lot less convincing than ours when you look behind the scoreline, and a few of them could quite easily have gone the other way - i.e. their form isn't as good as it looks.  Ours is.  Which is why they're getting fucking LACED next Saturday.  Get ready for ANOTHER relaxing win. 

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by Gemmill

[wykikitoon 24423]

[PaddockLad 20212]

Out Fishing The Fish is a bizarre obsession for Easter Sunday tbh

 

Villa won’t be looking forward to playing us because we’re fuckin ace  

 

 

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 4494]

As long as Gabby Agbonlahor predicts a Villa win we’ll be good.

[wykikitoon 24423]

  On 09/04/2023 at 13:21, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

As long as Gabby Agbonlahor predicts a Villa win we’ll be good.

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I herd a stat the other day, he is Villa's all time leading PL scorer.  Watkins is now in their top 10.  Fuck e.  They've got SHITE

[wykikitoon 24423]

 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 5604]

Aye, Gordon was bang out of order the way he was throwing his arms about. Hopefully Howe tore him a new one in private.

[The Fish 11641]

  On 09/04/2023 at 13:16, PaddockLad said:

Out Fishing The Fish is a bizarre obsession for Easter Sunday tbh

 

Villa won’t be looking forward to playing us because we’re fuckin ace  

 

 

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Nobody can outFish the Fish

[The Fish 11641]

  On 09/04/2023 at 14:32, LongTimeAdmirer said:

 

So against Everton, they were expecting 1.79 points out of 3?

 

wtf? 

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Given the value of the chances they made Vs chances they conceded, and simulating the game 10,000 times, you'd expect them to get on average 1.79pts. 

 

So there'll be a large number of those simulated games with those chances that went Everton's way, some that ended even, and some that did end up with Villa winning.

 

Basic stuff.  

[OTF 8983]

  On 09/04/2023 at 07:28, spongebob toonpants said:

When I lived in London at one point I went to 19 London games without seeing a win

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[OTF 8983]

  On 09/04/2023 at 14:54, wykikitoon said:

 

 

 

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"..we scored a winner and I kicked the corner flag right into the nuts of one of our supporters. Normally I only injure our players when celebrating, that was a new high for me"

[AaTavern 0]

 

[Howmanheyman 38863]

Thanks for the update.

[Kid Dynamite 8113]

  On 09/04/2023 at 12:28, Gemmill said:

For those worrying about facing Nee Baals's Beige Brigade, I've looked at their last 7 games (where they've seemingly become world beaters) and our last 7 games. 

 

I've considered their xP (it's a thing, deal with it) compared to their actual points, and ours.  And I've applied a colour scale so you can see at a glance how close the performances have actually been to the results. Ignore the figures in the "Diff" column that are greyed out - I've not included negative figures (where the club has got fewer xP than actual points) to avoid the negatives messing with the colour scale. 

 

First thing to point out is that Villa are running 6.5 points ahead of expectation over the last 7 games.  Which is a canny bit and much higher than our 2.03, which basically all came from us mugging Brentford yesterday. 

 

Villa did the same against Chelsea - managing an xP of only 0.39 but running out 2-0 winners. Which btw, is the only time they played a "big" team in this recent run.  Compare that with us picking up 2.91 xP against Man United - basically a MURDER of a team better than any they've played recently.

 

In fact, all of our wins against everyone bar Brentford have been very convincing, as evidenced by the difference between xP and actual being really less than half a point for all of them.  

 

Anyway, hopefully you can see there's a lot more red on Villa's side than on ours.  In other words, Villa's results have been a lot less convincing than ours when you look behind the scoreline, and a few of them could quite easily have gone the other way - i.e. their form isn't as good as it looks.  Ours is.  Which is why they're getting fucking LACED next Saturday.  Get ready for ANOTHER relaxing win. 

 

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They've hit a purple against teams in 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th.

 

7 of their last 8 games are against top 10 sides. I fully expect them to hit the skids

[Gemmill 53642]

Aye, there's no doubt Emery has improved them but fucking hell he was taking over from Steven Gerrard, of course he's improved them.

 

But what they're doing at the minute isn't sustainable for them against even the poor sides they've been doing it against, never mind the better sides they've got left to play.

[toonotl 3778]

On the xG against Brentford, it's probably worth considering that their xG was skewed by having two penalties (one that shouldn't have been given) granting them an enormous amount of xG. I think a penalty is worth 0.8xG. And we had a goal scored from 6-yards out chalked off for "reasons" which would've chalked off a fair bit of our xG. Obviously there are variables in every match so I'm not trying to say too much can be drawn, but it's maybe worth mentioning to note that in this instance the xG didn't give as accurate a representation of the balance of play in in the match as it would on average. In short, we didn't get outplayed and mug them as much as the xG may suggest.

 

To the eye perhaps you could say that: They were better first half. We were better second half. So maybe a draw would've been fair. But then again it should've been 3-0 if VAR hadn't tried their best to fuck us. So fuck them.

 

 

[The Fish 11641]

  On 10/04/2023 at 07:58, toonotl said:

On the xG against Brentford, it's probably worth considering that their xG was skewed by having two penalties (one that shouldn't have been given) granting them an enormous amount of xG. I think a penalty is worth 0.8xG. And we had a goal scored from 6-yards out chalked off for "reasons" which would've chalked off a fair bit of our xG. Obviously there are variables in every match so I'm not trying to say too much can be drawn, but it's maybe worth mentioning to note that in this instance the xG didn't give as accurate a representation of the balance of play in in the match as it would on average. In short, we didn't get outplayed and mug them as much as the xG may suggest.

 

To the eye perhaps you could say that: They were better first half. We were better second half. So maybe a draw would've been fair. But then again it should've been 3-0 if VAR hadn't tried their best to fuck us. So fuck them.

 

 

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Their non-penalty xG was 1.0, ours was 1.3.

[The Fish 11641]

  On 10/04/2023 at 05:37, LongTimeAdmirer said:

 

still is useless though. You only get 0, 1 or 3 points 

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This isn't challenging that, this is saying that given the chances they made and conceded, if you were to simulate the game 10,000 times they would average out with fewer than 3pts.

 

The implication being that they've been lucky to have got as many points as they have, given the performances in attack and defence.

[Ayatollah Hermione 15462]

Football isn’t played on paper 

[Alex 38403]

  On 09/04/2023 at 22:03, The Fish said:

Nobody can outFish the Fish

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[RobinRobin 13243]

[Gemmill 53642]

  On 10/04/2023 at 07:58, toonotl said:

On the xG against Brentford, it's probably worth considering that their xG was skewed by having two penalties (one that shouldn't have been given) granting them an enormous amount of xG. I think a penalty is worth 0.8xG. And we had a goal scored from 6-yards out chalked off for "reasons" which would've chalked off a fair bit of our xG. Obviously there are variables in every match so I'm not trying to say too much can be drawn, but it's maybe worth mentioning to note that in this instance the xG didn't give as accurate a representation of the balance of play in in the match as it would on average. In short, we didn't get outplayed and mug them as much as the xG may suggest.

 

To the eye perhaps you could say that: They were better first half. We were better second half. So maybe a draw would've been fair. But then again it should've been 3-0 if VAR hadn't tried their best to fuck us. So fuck them.

 

 

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Aye good shout. I did think about mentioning that in my initial post but, between you and me, I thought things were already complicated enough for some of the FUCKHEADS on here.

 

Looking at the Liverpool v Arsenal match BTW. Arsenal 0.10xP, and they're now 12.8 ahead of their expected points.

 

Would be an awful shame to see them regress to the mean between now and May.