ChezGiven

If Barton wants to stay, all this academic. Contracts work both ways and unless the managers says he isn't part of his plans, the club has to honour the contract.

Some of the best pop music from this year.

Nice one Uncle Nicos, thats very handy.

We are 'believed to be willing to listen to offers'? Am sure we are. Anyway, if he loves it in the dressing room as much as he says, he'll stay.

Gran Turismo 5 by Gok Wan. http://www.danideahl.com/audio/12_16_10/Ji...onRadioEdit.mp3

FYP

Nasri for me.

Highest point - Doncaster 0 - 1. That was the moment i knew we were back up. It was the week that Carroll allegedly broke Taylor's jaw and Hughton started Carroll amid plenty of media shite and attention. He scored the only goal which i think was about our only decent chance. Lowest point - Ben Arfa's injury. I was angry about Hughton but i was genuinely more that sad that day. Game of the year - Should be the mackems, i travelled back for it, had a lush weekend but Arsenal away was the biggest result for the club for the outside world. And so it should have been, what a performance. Tim Krul getting 2 of the 3 points with that save too. Goal of the year - Carroll v Villa, or Ameobi v Sunderland. Cant make up my mind. Most improved player - Carroll, couldnt be anyone else really. Most disappointing player - Jonas. Has good quick feet, should have been a dancer.

Both.

We've never had an honest vision of what he has in store for the club, assuming a long or even medium term plan exists or ever has done. I think that's why people are always trying to second guess what he's doing and the motives behind that. I honestly think that is cause he's changed his mind a few times regarding long term commitment and other factors like the financial crisis (which still hasn't washed out of the system, regardless of lapdog media suggestions). Think for a billionaire he is a very strange mix and a real lottery when it comes to second guessing his next move. I don't really mind him for that as his main life experience will have been to do with ultra competitive scenarios and survival and the fact that he has had to work really hard (had some luck as well) to get his money. I think he's changed his mind a few times as well. Again though, he could've been more open about that and built up a far better relationship with the fans on the back of it, i.e. "I planned to do A, but the financial crisis hit me in the pocket, so it's now a case of plan B". In lieu of that there's a strong suspicion that he's taking the piss out of the fans etc. And the most ridiculous thing of all is that his fear of being honest has led him to say the most outrageous lies which is far more contemptuous of the fans than if he had just said 'am cutting back for a couple of seasons, put your ambition on hold, i'll not let us do a Leeds but thats about it'. I dont think he has ever understood the dynamic of how the fan's passions actually work. Yes people shout and spit venom when things go wrong but trying to lie your way out of it is far worse in the long run.

Its funny reading comments now about how great Shepherd was because there are only 4 posters on here who had anything remotley positive to say about him at the time. If he was that good, why was Leazes about the only one defending him back in 2005 etc? Those 4 posters for the record are Leazes, me, Parky and alex.* I can hold me head high and say that during their era, i was pointing out how far the club had come whereas 99% of people on here and NO were calling him a fat cunt and wanted him out. I'm obviously odd as i look back slightly more critically now, when you see the vast amounts of profit the two families made from the club and find the irony compelling. The club was in decline, Ashley accelerated that decline and now has reversed it somewhat. Saying that he wants us to float between the championship and the premiership to make profits year on year may be true or just ill-informed polemic. I would have said the former 12 months ago but the last 2 windows have made me pause for thought. My scientific training teaches me to keep collecting data and to keep updating my assumptions. The Hughton episode has been particularly difficult to interpret because of multiple possible motivations. Again, time (Jan 31st, 2011) will tell. * Apologies if missed any current regulars off here, i cant think of anyone.

Stock market index has dropped from 6,700 to 5,500 over the period from floatation. Just for context. 150p is therefore poor compared to 300p set against the FTSE. Depends on the dividend of course, P/E ratios are quite low in Retail so its probably not bad tbh. "partly" vindicated at best.

Well, i was going to continue with trying to explore with UV in a bit more depth some of the outstanding questions regarding the financial history and current situation at the club but this is much more interesting.

On the subject of Ben Arfa, had a new boiler installed yesterday morning by a couple of French-Tunisian lads. Never seen anyone so excited to meet a Newcastle supporter.

FYP

Appointed until just after the January window? Seems that his relationship with Anderson and Kentaro got him the job. Read an interesting article on him this morning about how he has climbed the ladder and never made a secret of his desire to be a manager. Credited with being the tactical brains behind Coleman's success at Fulham. New continental structure with agent as Director of Football?

Maybe he is just preparing us to be sold? Getting the wages down is a means to that too. The Hughton decision certainly shows he hasnt learned much from his mistakes. If he invests in January then it might be clearer what his intentions are. With Gosling, Ben Arfa and 2 new recruits we might do alright second half of the season. A lot depends on Pardew too who has yet to convince me he isnt a cunt.

Unfortunately, that doesnt make any sense. You cant expect the club not to go bust and be in debt. Aren't all the other PL clubs in debt though (and loss making too)? They aren't about to go bust unless their benefactors put them under, are they? It's totally obvious Ashley is subsidising the club and without his support it would go under, I get that. But so what? There can't be many clubs that make profits and the situation must have been obvious when he bought the club. I know the Shepherd and the Halls left a financial mess when he bought the club, again he should have known this. My frustration is that he seems to be applying financial strictures to the club that no-one else is adopting. That might be prudent business, we might be ahead of the curve and other clubs may have to fall into line, or whatever. However I can see that with more investment, we would do significantly better. I want more ambition - I say that as a fan, not their financial director. Chez, I understand the economics don't make sense, but in my view, if he couldn't afford to put the money in, he shouldn't have bought the club in the first place. My view isn't driven by business logic or analysis, I'm just a fan who wants the club to do well. I really haven't bothered to go into the detail of the finances, so I'm talking from the heart not the head. There are some clubs who have spent loads and have either gone bust or are now seriously reigning in the spend and there are a raft of clubs who are about to. Bolton being a good example of what is coming, we arent much different to anyone else in terms of spending power. When you add in our spend in January and the summer and set it against other clubs in the prem we arent the 3rd bottom spenders any more. I doubt many will spend in January but i reckon we will do another £5m, which would take us to about £15m in 12 months. My view is that apart from lacking investment (no more than £10m would be realistic) in 08/09 he hasnt done much wrong financially. Its not this which is the problem with Ashley. The year he took over our revenue was £99m but our spend was £107m, to balance that year out, spend has to be £91m the following year if revenue stays the same. As revenue dropped £13m he had to find £21m in savings to sort out the problem. We sold £23m worth of players. The debt/loss thing is just like the debt/deficit issue for countries. Debt is not the problem, its the deficit (loss) that affects your ability to raise finance. If you have a huge loss, no-one will lend as you are a risk. If you have a huge debt but break even, people will lend to you. Our finances were about as bad as it can get when he took over as we were at the end of our credit line. Whether a plan was in place to re-finance in June 2007 or not is irrelevant because by 2008 the world of 'finance' had changed forever. Me knowing what happened next makes me think that we would have been fucked. Shepherd cant be held to blame for not fore-seeing the crisis either, i want to be clear on that. Anyway, my point is one of optimism (where i came in on this) because once the rules change, we have to break even or limit losses anyway. My hope is that we are getting the financial side sorted out in preparation for this. Being 8th when no-one dared to hope for more than 17th whilst doing this, lets me see the glass half full. I'm not trying to defend him, the facts are the club was not healthy financially when he came in, £45m of debt had to be paid off there and then, the banks would not lend NUFC a penny more with him as the new owner and the club was stuffed with overpaid, poor footballer taking up more wages than was viable. It got worse from there because of his idiocy but it could have been a lot worse as finance basically disappeared.

UV, that link tells you all you need to know apart from the costs. From the 2003 peak of CL money, it all starts to go to shit. Add in this graph http://www.football-finances.org.uk/newcas...08/payroll3.htm and you have exactly the picture i was painting. The spike in revenue from TV in 2008 was well anticipated, everyone knew it was coming so wages kept going up and as you say a re-financing plan was in place. At a minimum of 11,7% and certainly not at a fixed rate which would have gone through the roof post-crisis. The main issue, as i'm sure you agree, is the drop off in income in 2009. All of that drop (99m to 86m) is attributable to him (lower corporate) the team's peformance (lower TV) and the overall state of the club (lower attendances). It doesnt explain the trends from 2003 to 2008 but his management of it is utterly absurd and takes me back to my original point. He's a cunt.

'Waiter, can you clear this table?' 'Not in these trousers'

The answer to your first paragraph is two trending lines. One is costs going up and the other is revenues which are going down. Each month/year those trends continue, the more the loss per year. In 2006, the losses were smaller than in 2007 because our revenue was higher and our costs were smaller. Those trends were set in place by contracts in the preceding and current years. Downward trending revenue and upward trending costs will lead to bankruptcy. Second paragraph, i agree and this is where my lack of accountancy skills means i have to say, not sure. If you read the article in the OP again, he says its not until 2009 where the club makes an actual operating loss of 9m. This is before interest, tax, amort, etc. When you add that in its something like a 38m loss which if offset by 23m in sales (real cash). This concerns me too because it makes me think that the books were cooked before they got the club and they were therefore able to write down more 'paper losses'. He addresses this in the article. Its not that clear an analysis. I made the comment about bankruptcy because Shepherd would not have seen the financial crisis coming and its my strong belief that re-financing the club during and immediately after the crisis would not have been possible. It would had to have been sold or closed.

It's surprisingly addictive if you follow decent people. There's a thread on here with Toontastic people's twitter names on, and some of the decent football journos etc. Then there'll be all sorts of motor-racing shenanigans for you to follow etc. I cant find the thread Bianca I think I signed up for it before but didnt do anything about it. Im not interested in 'celebs' if they just churn out stuff they are expected to say like! About 6 threads down the page! http://www.toontastic.net/board/index.php?showtopic=29000

How gay is Gemmill by the way? Sitting around in a slanket with his kittens watching x-factor. Needs to man the fuck up.