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US election 2016


Happy Face
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@@Happy Face Can you remember when you posted that poll analysis that called Obama's victory last time round about a year in advance (very accurately in terms of what states he would win iirc? I don't think they wavered at all in the run up even though others were predicting it would be close. I wondered what they were predicting this time round.

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I know Trump's, in many ways, the anti-establishment candidate but he's also everything many people say thay hate about politicians, i.e. all meaningless sloganism without any real substance. I still get the feeling he thinks he can say what he wants because he doesn't really believe he'll win.

 

Aye :lol:

 

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Trump doesn't strike me as the sort of person who would do something if he thinks there's a chance of him being "the plucky runner up".... I think someone on here said at one of our recent elections that they'd be tempted to draw a massive cock and bollocks on the ballot slip.... If I was a US citizen in November that's precisely what I'd do... Hilary is as bad but for different reasons...

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Would tend to agree re: Trump generally but feel it may have been a massive ego trip that's gotten out of hand. I doubt he thought he'd be selected as the Republican candidate when it all kicked off. Not a fan of Hilary either, mind.

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I actually said similar to my lass this morning after seeing it on the news.

 

we're seeing troubling parallels with the 30s on both sides of the atlantic.

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@@Happy Face Can you remember when you posted that poll analysis that called Obama's victory last time round about a year in advance (very accurately in terms of what states he would win iirc? I don't think they wavered at all in the run up even though others were predicting it would be close. I wondered what they were predicting this time round.

I'd say you're looking for http://fivethirtyeight.com/

 

Superb analysis.

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@@Happy Face Can you remember when you posted that poll analysis that called Obama's victory last time round about a year in advance (very accurately in terms of what states he would win iirc? I don't think they wavered at all in the run up even though others were predicting it would be close. I wondered what they were predicting this time round.

 

@@Alex Adios is right, it was FiveThirtyEight got it spot on last time. They're currently wracked with doubt about their predictions as trump is defying them at every turn though. They gave him no hope whatsoever in the republican primaries. Nate Silver, their chief polling analyst, did a massive write up on where mistakes may have been made....

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

 

All that said, they call it 60/40 for Clinton right now...

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

But that's as close as they have had it, so the gap may continue to close.

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Clinton wants to go into Syria (get Assad) and then Iran that is big war. Fighting ISIS is and nicking oil is already happening.

 

He's gonna find out if he ever becomes President that ISIS are using Western arms dropped to 'the moderates'.... :lol: It's why the Saudi's have been attacking him round the clock.

 

ISIS and ALQ/Taliban are completely different entities. One uses drugs/slavery/rape and the other are against all those things. Infact the Taliban shut down Afghan opium production and of course NATO has gone in and made sure its tripled over the last few years.

 

It's why the truce between ISIS and ALQ affiliates in Syria doesn't always hold and they fight each other. It's one of the reason Assad just about held on in the early days.

 

ISIS is a pure creation of the Gulf states which are Western proxies with reg to back door destabalising of countries that the West doesn't like/want/have surpluses/no debt. See Libya/Syria/Iraq.

 

Watch Erdogan. :)

Edited by Park Life
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@@Alex Adios is right, it was FiveThirtyEight got it spot on last time. They're currently wracked with doubt about their predictions as trump is defying them at every turn though. They gave him no hope whatsoever in the republican primaries. Nate Silver, their chief polling analyst, did a massive write up on where mistakes may have been made....

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

 

All that said, they call it 60/40 for Clinton right now...

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

But that's as close as they have had it, so the gap may continue to close.

Tanks to de pair of yas tbs
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We voted brexit so all bets are off. Trump in the White House seems just as ridiculous so don't be surprised if it transpires. I remember people saying the same about dubya. The yanks tend to appoint a moron every now and then

Edited by Dr Gloom
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Congress hasn't been offered a vote on a war in decades. Presedential signing orders have become the norm.

 

It works on short term things and new laws can't be passed like that i think, but certainly claiming a state of emergency what with all the Muslims and Mexicans and banning their entry shouldn't be too difficult.... Unlike the logistics of sending the existing Muslims and Mexicans anywhere.

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