2023/24 - Generic NUFC Chat

[Dr Gloom 20226]

18 minutes ago, aimaad22 said:

 

Agree with the point but still feed a quite disappointed about the injury. I think he was very good and very underrated last season, got the ability to make things happen and provide quality in the final third, offers something different to our other wingers. Might have been very handy in the cup games too. But yeah, better this position than others. 

 

Still cant help but be amazed we're one CB injury away from starting Lascelles, surely this will be addressed in January?

100% he would have been useful for league and champions league games too because he knows where the back of the net is. Probably the third best finisher in the squad after the two CFs based on what he did for Leicester. Gutted for him.

 

But yeah, we’re well stocked at LW. I would have preferred to sign a new RW, DM or RCB first but I suppose we got him because he was available and affordable. 

[Ayatollah Hermione 12909]

I actually think Anderson is probably the best bet to cover since he has the skills, especially with the way he can carry the ball past people and he has the strength to keep it. Until Joelinton and Willock are back anyway

[Gemmill 35968]

 

Expected points league table shows we "should" be 4th. Brighton, Spurs, Villa, West Ham, all doing better than they "should" - tbf Brighton are owed from last season.

 

Man United should be even worse off than they already are.

[Dr Gloom 20226]

2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Expected points league table shows we "should" be 4th. Brighton, Spurs, Villa, West Ham, all doing better than they "should" - tbf Brighton are owed from last season.

 

Man United should be even worse off than they already are.

These are the points we should have won if our arsed had remained in place against Liverpool, I presume  

[Howay 12496]

7 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

Expected points league table shows we "should" be 4th. Brighton, Spurs, Villa, West Ham, all doing better than they "should" - tbf Brighton are owed from last season.

 

Man United should be even worse off than they already are.

Interesting especially given we had statistically the hardest start to the league by a decent margin. 

[RobinRobin 9576]

14 hours ago, Howay said:

[Gemmill 35968]

4 hours ago, Howay said:

Interesting especially given we had statistically the hardest start to the league by a decent margin. 

 

Given your burgeoning reputation as a stats man, here's an article on xP, how it's calculated etc.

 

https://luke-beggs.medium.com/creating-an-expected-points-xp-calculator-for-football-matches-ce4edd18d16f#:~:text=Calculating xP in this basic,then give you the result).

[Gemmill 35968]

In answer to your question, the Liverpool game was a decent part of it. Our xP in that game was 1.93 to their 0.81, but obviously we got 0 and they walked away with 3.

 

https://understat.com/match/22304

 

The stats tab there shows you. If you click on the timing tab and then on Nunez's goals in the time line you can see how absurdly unlikely it was for him to score twice from two shots with a combined xG of 0.36. But that's what the cunt did.

 

[PaddockLad 14965]

14 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

In answer to your question, the Liverpool game was a decent part of it. Our xP in that game was 1.93 to their 0.81, but obviously we got 0 and they walked away with 3.

 

https://understat.com/match/22304

 

The stats tab there shows you. If you click on the timing tab and then on Nunez's goals in the time line you can see how absurdly unlikely it was for him to score twice from two shots with a combined xG of 0.36. But that's what the cunt did.

 

So was it 1.93 at the start, after VVD got sent off, or at the end? It’s got to be at the end iI’d have thought? 🤔

[Andrew 4296]

I figured I'd venture back to podcast land after the 8-0 win and stuck the football ramble on for the first time in a while.

 

Wish I hadnt bothered, they had Sunderland fan david cartlidge on but he was actually alright. I dont think ive heard "newcastle supporter" pete donaldson say anything remotely positive about the club in years though, we won 8-0 and still all he did was fucking moan. 

[Gemmill 35968]

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

So was it 1.93 at the start, after VVD got sent off, or at the end? It’s got to be at the end iI’d have thought? 🤔

 

At the end of the game.

 

If you read that article, basically you take all of the shots that each team had and their associated xG and you then run thousands of simulations of the match (up to 100,000).

 

By the time you've done that, you've got a distribution of Newcastle wins, Liverpool wins, and draws.

 

Let's make numbers up, and say it was 60% Newcastle wins, 10% draws and 30% Liverpool wins.

 

So Newcastle's expected points would be (60% * 3) + (10% * 1) = 1.9 points.

[PaddockLad 14965]

That’s great thanks, and one in the eye for the dozens of TT punters who cheerfully commented that they thought Liverpool should have and actually deserved to win after the game  

[Renton 18188]

37 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

That’s great thanks, and one in the eye for the dozens of TT punters who cheerfully commented that they thought Liverpool should have and actually deserved to win after the game  

 

Really?

Who the fuck thought that? Just a freak game, these things happen. The worst part of it though was I think it impacted on our confidence and future results. Hopefully that is dispelled now though. 

[PaddockLad 14965]

46 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Really?

Who the fuck thought that? Just a freak game, these things happen. The worst part of it though was I think it impacted on our confidence and future results. Hopefully that is dispelled now though. 

I think you need to get your “sarc-dar” recalibrated  

 

Stats have their place as Dave proved  at the weekend but I don’t think anyone needed a graph to illustrate that we should’ve beaten Liverpool

[The Fish 9300]

2 hours ago, Andrew said:

I figured I'd venture back to podcast land after the 8-0 win and stuck the football ramble on for the first time in a while.

 

Wish I hadnt bothered, they had Sunderland fan david cartlidge on but he was actually alright. I dont think ive heard "newcastle supporter" pete donaldson say anything remotely positive about the club in years though, we won 8-0 and still all he did was fucking moan. 

 

He just doesn't bring a lot to the football side of things at all. Get the sense he's just there for the vibes.

 

Whenever big wins happen, the commentators and pundits always, ALWAYS, focus on what the losers did wrong. Match of the Day covered the goals, but barely scratched the surface of the performances from Gordon, Longstaff, Bruno. Yes, Sheffield were bad, but everyone in a black and white shirt did very well.

[aimaad22 3654]

Aye tons of reaction about feeling sorry or sympathetic for Sheffield Utd players? Why ffs?  Rich men just got promoted to playing in the best league in the world and put in a half arsed performance in front of their home crowd. Yeah THAT is what needs sympathy these days. They got absolutely what they deserved. 

[wykikitoon 17199]

A lad I know who is a blade, said the woman sat reading the book does it at every home game. She goes with her blind husband.  She apparently isn't bothered about football but goes with him.

[ewerk 26981]

10 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

A lad I know who is a blade, said the woman sat reading the book does it at every home game. She goes with her blind husband.  She apparently isn't bothered about football but goes with him.

 

She doesn't look to be doing a great job at looking after him tbf.

 

[Rayvin 4972]

Aye, think he might have wandered onto the field and ended up playing in their defence.

[Dr Gloom 20226]

no offence to the blind, but going to the football seems like an expensive pastime if you can't see what's going on

[Howmanheyman 27749]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

no offence to the blind, but going to the football seems like an expensive pastime if you can't see what's going on

 

You'd knock back sexual interflora with....[insert your fantasy shag here]..... if you all of a sudden couldn't see anymore? 

 

[ewerk 26981]

Yeah but he's going to Sheffield United. That's like saying your dream shag is Susan Boyle.

[Howmanheyman 27749]

4 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Yeah but he's going to Sheffield United. That's like saying your dream shag is Susan Boyle.

 

We've all been there, mate....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Well, MF has, so.....)

[Monkeys Fist 39217]

3 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Yeah but he's going to Sheffield United. That's like saying your dream shag is Susan Boyle.

Maybe it is, have you seen his Mrs? *
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* no, neither has he!!!

[ewerk 26981]