Politics

[Alex 30446]

Actually just looking at the latest results and they’re ludicrously bad for the Tories. Already lost 900 seats with some results still to come in. The conservatives only said they might lose 1,000 so they could pretend they’d done well if they didn’t. Meanwhile Labour 500 ish seats gained already. I’d like to see that guru’s workings out 

[Renton 17821]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

So the interpretation of today's results by the BBC's election guru has Labour 20 seats short of a majority come the GE.

 

Honestly I thought Labour were further along than that, wasn't polling north of 40%?

 

If it's not a majority, who do they get into bed with?

 

I don't think you can take anything from these elections, another reason I'm not arsed. Lib Dems aren't going to get 20% in a GE, and Green and independents also fair much worse because of our wonderful FTP and tactical voting (voting Labour whilst biting your lip). It's Labour's best showing in local elections for quarter of a century, regardless.

 

[Howmanheyman 26923]

46 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

 

 

They've already caused the damage they were paid to do. 

[NJS 3984]

36 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:

People probably figured there's not much point in a UK Independence Party now that there's an independent UK

Or since all their policies and worse are now tory party policies. 

 

Of course a lot of their members also directly joined the tories. 

[Gemmill 34593]

 

Thread

[Rayvin 4964]

Good thread. Explains it better. Also seems to make clear that we're having our "anyone but trump" moment. Fully deserved for the Tories.

[NJS 3984]

It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. 

 

Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. 

[Renton 17821]

58 minutes ago, NJS said:

It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. 

 

Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. 

 

That's not the point being made though is it? It's not Starmers shift right that's the LDs/Greens are benefitting from, it's the ubiquity of the hatred for the tories.

 

I'd love a coalition but can't see anything but a 97 level majority for Labour, with LDs picking up a few seats. There's nothing the tories can do to stop this now imo, cos everything is getting increasingly shit.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Renton

[NJS 3984]

I think it'll narrow as it gets nearer - it's only last year they broached 50% but now it's down to a "normal" winning lead of 36 to 42 roughly. 

 

There is a lot of anti-tory sentiment I agree but if people aren't positively drawn to Labour they'll look at alternatives. 

 

They have done a reasonable job of regaining support from the red wall but in other areas they aren't doing as well - I think that's more likely to be people like us who aren't convinced that they want to really change anything. 

[Isegrim 8874]

2 hours ago, Howmanheyman said:

 

They've already caused the damage they were paid to do. 

They were alway a single policy party

[Renton 17821]

24 minutes ago, NJS said:

I think it'll narrow as it gets nearer - it's only last year they broached 50% but now it's down to a "normal" winning lead of 36 to 42 roughly. 

 

There is a lot of anti-tory sentiment I agree but if people aren't positively drawn to Labour they'll look at alternatives. 

 

They have done a reasonable job of regaining support from the red wall but in other areas they aren't doing as well - I think that's more likely to be people like us who aren't convinced that they want to really change anything. 

 

But that's the point, it will be a pincer movement annihilating the tories. Only Labour will benefit from the SNP's fall in Scotland, its fanciful to think Labour won't achieve a large majority as the author from that thread says. If the tories go below 200 seats ( I think they'll go lower personally), the main beneficiaries will be Labour, mopping up Scotland, Northern England, the Midlands, and London. 

[Kid Dynamite 5936]

I see the EU have passed a law saying it's ok to test makeup on animals again. 
 

Finally! A benefit of sovereignty! A stupid law we can ignore..... except the UK government has taken it to the courts to make sure we can test makeup on animals too 👍

[Monkeys Fist 38798]

1 hour ago, Isegrim said:

They were alway a single policy party

Aye, and it had nowt to do with “Independence”. 

[Dr Gloom 19837]

12 hours ago, NJS said:

It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. 

 

Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. 

a progressive coalition wouldn’t be the worst result 

[ewerk 26440]

The price of Lib Dem support would almost certainly be electoral reform.

[Alex 30446]

16 hours ago, Monkeys Fist said:

Aye, and it had nowt to do with “Independence”. 

They’re independent from Russian funding now 👍🏻

[Renton 17821]

27 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The price of Lib Dem support would almost certainly be electoral reform.

 

Yeah, they cut such a hard deal on that with the tories last time.

It's fantasy anyway imo, I just can't see the arithmetic for it.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Renton

[wykikitoon 16723]

There's a village near me I cycle through a lot. I also have friends who. Live there. They're labour and hate the Tories. It's been a Tory strong hold for decades. Every time me and a mate cycle through he always slags it off and calls it a Tory cunt hole. 

 

Yesterday the Green Party took it. He's a big environmentalist and he's still not happy about it 🤣 🤣 

[ewerk 26440]

Sounds like your soulmate tbh.

[wykikitoon 16723]

🤣 I asked for that.

 

He's well into his architecture and there's a housing estate built by a typical mass house builder. Bit of a soulless etstae and given where it is people pay a large whack for the houses. That pisses him off more. 

[ewerk 26440]

On 05/05/2023 at 18:24, Alex said:

I think electoral calculus still has them with a majority close to 200. Based on a months polling and updated at the beginning of May. I’d trust them more. Even if Gemmill’s right and that’s excluding Scotland that doesn’t sound right. Also, isn’t this election council seats which were last contested in May 2019? Where the Tories performed badly in the last days of May as PM? So they’ve lost something like 700 council seats on top of a bad starting point? I’m going to suggest the BBC might be painting a less than realistic picture 

It wasn’t just the BBC though.

 

 

[Alex 30446]

So-called analyst 

[Renton 17821]

2 hours ago, ewerk said:

It wasn’t just the BBC though.

 

 

 

It's difficult to understand his analysis from that clip. Ultimately though, voting is about the economy. You ask any economist, and we haven't seen the worst of the cost of living crisis or recession yet (I realise we're about 0.1% short of a technical recession). Things are going to get worse,  not better, before a GE. So add this into other factors such as tory infighting, tactical voting, Scotland, the point Alex made about this result being on top of a low water mark, and I think he's talking shit personally. He looks like a smug tory cunt too. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Renton

[Gemmill 34593]

They're like Sky Sports. They need to pretend the title race is still going long after it's finished.

[ewerk 26440]