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The Entirely Reasonable Potential Transfers Thread


Ayatollah Hermione
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1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

schick would be exciting - he looked class in the euros and has scored goals throughout his career - but is he going to leave leverkusen @Isegrim

solanke feels like more of a punt, though he has scored goals for bournemouth in the championship. fuck knows about azmoun  - an iranian who has scored goal;s for fun in russia. 

 

Schick said that he isn’t looking for a transfer yesterday. He also said that he wouldn’t try to force a transfer if an offer was made. He has been linked to several teams recently, eg Real Madrid.

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According to some, there are some bookies not taking any more bets on Ramsey coming.  Was just listening to the radio and apparently Juve owe him a load of money.  So I can see him doing a Bale and just waiting it out there.

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I’m worried our lot are getting a bit too concerned with being ripped off. I understand not wanting to be pushed around but the reality is we are 19th, our squad is awful, we are desperate, we are minted, no one likes selling in this window, and everyone we are negotiating with knows all of this. We are going to have to accept being ripped off to a degree. 

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Aye if you've convinced yourself the player is the right one, then use whatever size crowbar is required to get him out of his current contract. 

There has to be a "within reason" in there to some extent, but only if they're asking for insane money. 

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Yeah, but regardless of being ripped off or not there is a limit to how much we can spend in this window due to financial fair play. I know some have said it's close to 200m , but 1) I don't know how true that is, and 2) I'm not sure how that then plays into how much we'll be allowed to spend in the summer. Is it the calendar year they take account of when tallying up how much you're allowed to spend? The tax year?

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1 minute ago, Polarboy said:

Yeah, but regardless of being ripped off or not there is a limit to how much we can spend in this window due to financial fair play. I know some have said it's close to 200m , but 1) I don't know how true that is, and 2) I'm not sure how that then plays into how much we'll be allowed to spend in the summer. Is it the calendar year they take account of when tallying up how much you're allowed to spend? The tax year?

We have spent £12m. We have more than enough at the moment to play with.

We are in no position to play hardball.  

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12m on Trippier, a potential 70m on two centre backs, presumably another 20 to 30 on a left back, another 30 or so on a defensive mid, and we're up to 132, 142m. You could say a striker is more important than say getting a left back, but it does start adding up, plus we don't even take into consideration the cost of wages and agents fees. And again it's likely not a case of the club playing hardball. The reality is that there is a finite amount of money that's allowed to be spent, clubs are much less willing to sell their players in January, and high quality players that aren't mercenaries are much less likely to join a club in a relegation fight.

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6 minutes ago, Polarboy said:

Yeah, but regardless of being ripped off or not there is a limit to how much we can spend in this window due to financial fair play. I know some have said it's close to 200m , but 1) I don't know how true that is, and 2) I'm not sure how that then plays into how much we'll be allowed to spend in the summer. Is it the calendar year they take account of when tallying up how much you're allowed to spend? The tax year?

As Wykiki mentioned we have spent £12m for FFP purposes. It’s calculated across 3 years so yeah excess spend now would impact our future spendto a degree, as would increased sponsorship money etc, this issue is what’s the point in waiting until the summer? We will be relegated which, if they care about FFP, is miles fucking worse and that hit in our finances lingers around for FFP purposes for 3 years. Any player we buy the cost is amortized over the life of their contract anyway, so if Botman signed a 5 year deal the fee would be spread over that 5 years, so that’s why I said above it effects summer spending to a degree but it wouldn’t hit us for 100% of the impact. 
 

As Gemmill was saying there’s a limit, if we are after Botman and value him at €40m but they’re demanding twice that, then I understand that level of feeling ripped off, but if we can get him for €50m tomorrow then they have to be prepared to make that leap imo if it’s a player they want. We are running out of time, Umtiti who was seen as a target in case we couldn’t get Botman looks to have signed a new deal (likely restructuring his contract) so that Avenue is likely closed. 

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2 minutes ago, Polarboy said:

12m on Trippier, a potential 70m on two centre backs, presumably another 20 to 30 on a left back, another 30 or so on a defensive mid, and we're up to 132, 142m. You could say a striker is more important than say getting a left back, but it does start adding up, plus we don't even take into consideration the cost of wages and agents fees. And again it's likely not a case of the club playing hardball. The reality is that there is a finite amount of money that's allowed to be spent, clubs are much less willing to sell their players in January, and high quality players that aren't mercenaries are much less likely to join a club in a relegation fight.

That's in this FFP window.  If that's what it needs to stay up and for us to kick on then it needs doing.

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10 minutes ago, Polarboy said:

12m on Trippier, a potential 70m on two centre backs, presumably another 20 to 30 on a left back, another 30 or so on a defensive mid, and we're up to 132, 142m. You could say a striker is more important than say getting a left back, but it does start adding up, plus we don't even take into consideration the cost of wages and agents fees. And again it's likely not a case of the club playing hardball. The reality is that there is a finite amount of money that's allowed to be spent, clubs are much less willing to sell their players in January, and high quality players that aren't mercenaries are much less likely to join a club in a relegation fight.

All spread over the length of their contract though. So the 70m on the two CBs if you overpaid by say 20m across both and they both signed 5 year deals the impact of that overpayment would only be about 4m for the year. Is that worth praying and hoping we survive? We are going to get ripped off anywhere we turn, as you note this isn’t a window people want to sell in so they’re going to ask for high prices. Villa are shelling out nearly £300k a week on Digne and Coutinho, meanwhile we have paid £12m and 100k pw to one player - we shouldn’t be concerned about FFP at all currently. 
 

On the wages I don’t think Botman will ask for more now compared to in the summer so that doesn’t really change anything. 

Edited by Howay
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We should do whatever it takes of course, I agree with that, but I'm playing devil's advocate in terms of wondering what is actually possible. As I and others have said before we do have to be realistic as to who will sign regardless of what money we are throwing around. The Vlahovic's and probably even Schick's of football are most likely not going to come, at least not until the summer.

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To be fair, over paying isn’t necessarily the best move even though that’s exactly what I want us to do

 

we could spend a fortune and STILL be relegated and then be stuck with a load of mercenaries who can’t be arsed (I know there will be some relegation clauses in any contracts but who knows how protective they are)

 

each time we’ve been relegated we had enough to come back first time and that was with Ashley

 

i thought we should get Willock all costs but now who wants him?

 

 

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When I say over pay I’m not meaning spend €70m on Botman btw, I’m meaning if we are at €40m and they want €45m just pay it or move on. 
 

We also seem to be targeting character so I’m less worried about the overpaid mercenary fear. The issue we are butting up against is club fees not player contracts, we aren’t signing the Coutinho/Bale/Hazards. 
 

Im just meaning, regardless of where we turn this window we will “overpay” there’s no deals to be had here unless we hit a release clause. Take Digne for example he was around 25m plus a 150k a week contract, we walked away as 150k isn’t what we wanted to pay - which is fine but what now? We can only do that for so long before it’s January 22nd and we have only Trippier in. I’d have walked away from Digne due to his character but lads like Botman, Carlos etc seem to be making the right noises and acting the right way about their motives for coming (in that money is part of it but not all of it). 

Edited by Howay
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5 minutes ago, Howay said:

When I say over pay I’m not meaning spend €70m on Botman btw, I’m meaning if we are at €40m and they want €45m just pay it or move on. 

Yeah I typed all that out but by the time I posted it I already disagreed with myself

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Just now, Asprilla said:

Yeah I typed all that out but by the time I posted it I already disagreed with myself

I take your point though. I think it is a difficult balance we have to strike as we need to set a tone that we won’t be pushed about as that would hurt us in future but we are also in a terrible bargaining position. 

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21 minutes ago, Polarboy said:

We should do whatever it takes of course, I agree with that, but I'm playing devil's advocate in terms of wondering what is actually possible. As I and others have said before we do have to be realistic as to who will sign regardless of what money we are throwing around. The Vlahovic's and probably even Schick's of football are most likely not going to come, at least not until the summer.

My worry is we don’t seem to be even getting to the point where we are discussing player contracts (besides via feeling out their agent as we’ve apparently done with Botman and Carlos). Villa so far have had a better window than us, if we want to stay up that can’t be the case we need to move quicker than this and haggling over fees is slowing us down. We’ve been discussing the Botman fee for over a week at this point, in the meantime Umtiti a possible loan option has signed a new deal meaning that’s likely off the table. If we had more bodies through the door and were at the point of trying to get a “nice to have” target in spending a week on negotiations is fine but we can’t do that yet. 
 

Regarding Schick and Vlahovic, agreed they may not come but players like that even if they wanted big money for them aren’t much risk - even if we went down people would be queuing up to get them in the summer. 

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12 minutes ago, Howay said:

I take your point though. I think it is a difficult balance we have to strike as we need to set a tone that we won’t be pushed about as that would hurt us in future but we are also in a terrible bargaining position. 

All facts.

 

 

With hindsight it’s a blessing that we’re out of the cup but I’m way more nervous than I was a few days ago. We’ve played better against good sides (while not winning) than average /poor sides

 

Gah 😩 

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1 hour ago, Polarboy said:

Yeah, but regardless of being ripped off or not there is a limit to how much we can spend in this window due to financial fair play. I know some have said it's close to 200m , but 1) I don't know how true that is, and 2) I'm not sure how that then plays into how much we'll be allowed to spend in the summer. Is it the calendar year they take account of when tallying up how much you're allowed to spend? The tax year?

This is quite a good explainer on how the FFP stuff works.

I think anyway, unless someone is going to tell me they've got it all wrong. 

In short though, we can spend A LOT before we fall foul of any FFP rules. 

 

 

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